MLB
Monday, July 06 at 02:10 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
Away
50-40
(25-19 Away)
Form
W
W
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
4.6
—
2.9
KC
Kansas City Royals
Home
36-54
(20-26 Home)
Form
L
L
L
L
W
- Spread
-
PHI +12.4 (-135)KC -12.4 (+100)
- Total
-
Posted 15.9 (-100)Simulated 7.5
- Moneyline
-
PHI +3300KC -10000
Simulated Outcome Probability
Philadelphia Phillies
65.8%
Kansas City Royals
34.2%
+62.9% edge at +3300
No edge at -10000
Our 10,000 iterations project the Philadelphia Phillies to win outright in 65.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PHI +12.4 / KC -12.4
PHI covers
(-135)
+42.6% Edge
100.0%
KC covers
(+100)
0.0%
Total
O/U: 15.9
OVER
(-100)
4.4%
UNDER
(+100)
+45.6% Edge
95.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: PHI starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in Slugging (+0.064).
- • 🐂 Bullpen Advantage: PHI relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the KC bullpen.
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at KC's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: PHI enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 53%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Philadelphia Phillies winning outright in 65.8% of run trials, with a projected score of PHI 4.6 - KC 3.0. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with PHI +12.4 covering in 100.0% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 15.9 which hit in 95.6% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
Simulated NRFI Probability
N/A
No Value Edge
Vegas Consensus NRFI Odds
N/A
Implied Probability: N/A
VegasSims Recommendation
NO ACTION
Insufficient Edge
Starting Pitchers Matchup
PHI
Cristopher Sánchez
Away Starter
ERA
2.91
WHIP
1.20
Record
18-7
IP
207.0
SO
231
GS
33
KC
Noah Cameron
Home Starter
ERA
4.11
WHIP
1.23
Record
9-8
IP
177.1
SO
158
GS
30
Top Offensive Performers
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Philadelphia Phillies
Kansas City Royals
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Philadelphia Phillies
L
@ Kansas City Royals
2 - 5
|
Jul 05, 2026
W
@ Kansas City Royals
6 - 1
|
Jul 04, 2026
L
vs Pittsburgh Pirates
1 - 6
|
Jul 02, 2026
W
vs Pittsburgh Pirates
10 - 6
|
Jul 01, 2026
W
vs Pittsburgh Pirates
8 - 0
|
Jun 30, 2026
Kansas City Royals
W
vs Philadelphia Phillies
5 - 2
|
Jul 05, 2026
L
vs Philadelphia Phillies
1 - 6
|
Jul 04, 2026
L
vs Tampa Bay Rays
2 - 5
|
Jul 02, 2026
L
vs Tampa Bay Rays
0 - 4
|
Jul 01, 2026
L
vs Tampa Bay Rays
4 - 10
|
Jun 30, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Kansas City Royals defeated Philadelphia Phillies
5 - 2
|
Jul 05, 2026
Away
Philadelphia Phillies defeated Kansas City Royals
6 - 1
|
Jul 04, 2026