MLB
Tuesday, July 07 at 07:45 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
Away
57-33
(28-15 Away)
Form
W
L
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
3.5
—
4.0
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
Home
47-42
(23-23 Home)
Form
W
W
L
L
L
- Spread
-
MIL -1.5 (-110)STL +1.5 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 8.5 (-115)Simulated 7.5
- Moneyline
-
MIL +120STL -145
Simulated Outcome Probability
Milwaukee Brewers
42.1%
St. Louis Cardinals
57.9%
No edge at +120
No edge at -145
Our 10,000 iterations project the St. Louis Cardinals to win outright in 57.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIL -1.5 / STL +1.5
MIL covers
(-110)
29.5%
STL covers
(-110)
+18.1% Edge
70.5%
Total
O/U: 8.5
OVER
(-115)
36.2%
UNDER
(-105)
+12.6% Edge
63.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: STL starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in On-Base Percentage (+0.031) and Slugging (+0.084).
- • 🐂 Bullpen Advantage: MIL relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the STL bullpen.
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at STL's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: MIL enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 83%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the St. Louis Cardinals winning outright in 57.9% of run trials, with a projected score of MIL 3.5 - STL 4.0. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with STL +1.5 covering in 70.5% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 8.5 which hit in 63.8% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
Simulated NRFI Probability
N/A
No Value Edge
Vegas Consensus NRFI Odds
N/A
Implied Probability: N/A
VegasSims Recommendation
NO ACTION
Insufficient Edge
Starting Pitchers Matchup
MIL
Robert Gasser
Away Starter
ERA
3.87
WHIP
1.19
Record
5-5
IP
109.1
SO
103
GS
20
STL
Hunter Dobbins
Home Starter
ERA
3.42
WHIP
1.30
Record
3-3
IP
50.0
SO
49
GS
7
Top Offensive Performers
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Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Milwaukee Brewers
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
4 - 3
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
4 - 3
|
Jul 06, 2026
W
@ Arizona Diamondbacks
3 - 2
|
Jul 05, 2026
L
@ Arizona Diamondbacks
3 - 4
|
Jul 04, 2026
W
@ Arizona Diamondbacks
7 - 4
|
Jul 03, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals
L
vs Milwaukee Brewers
3 - 4
|
Jul 07, 2026
L
vs Milwaukee Brewers
3 - 4
|
Jul 06, 2026
L
@ Chicago Cubs
4 - 6
|
Jul 05, 2026
W
@ Chicago Cubs
3 - 0
|
Jul 04, 2026
W
@ Chicago Cubs
17 - 1
|
Jul 03, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Milwaukee Brewers defeated St. Louis Cardinals
4 - 3
|
Jul 07, 2026
Away
Milwaukee Brewers defeated St. Louis Cardinals
4 - 3
|
Jul 06, 2026
Home
Milwaukee Brewers defeated St. Louis Cardinals
2 - 1
|
May 27, 2026
Home
Milwaukee Brewers defeated St. Louis Cardinals
6 - 0
|
May 26, 2026
Home
Milwaukee Brewers defeated St. Louis Cardinals
5 - 1
|
May 25, 2026