MLB
Monday, July 06 at 06:40 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NYY
New York Yankees
Away
49-40
(26-20 Away)
Form
L
L
W
L
L
Projected Final Score
3.9
—
3.1
TB
Tampa Bay Rays
Home
52-35
(31-12 Home)
Form
W
W
W
L
L
- Spread
-
NYY -1.5 (-115)TB +1.5 (-105)
- Total
-
Posted 7.5 (-110)Simulated 7.0
- Moneyline
-
NYY -150TB +125
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Yankees
57.1%
Tampa Bay Rays
42.9%
No edge at -150
No edge at +125
Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Yankees to win outright in 57.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NYY -1.5 / TB +1.5
NYY covers
(-115)
41.9%
TB covers
(-105)
+6.9% Edge
58.1%
Total
O/U: 7.5
OVER
(-110)
39.5%
UNDER
(-110)
+8.1% Edge
60.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: TB starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in On-Base Percentage (+0.032).
- • 🐂 Bullpen Advantage: NYY relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the TB bullpen.
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at TB's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: TB enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 60%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Yankees winning outright in 57.1% of run trials, with a projected score of NYY 3.9 - TB 3.1. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with TB +1.5 covering in 58.1% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 7.5 which hit in 60.5% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
Simulated NRFI Probability
N/A
No Value Edge
Vegas Consensus NRFI Odds
N/A
Implied Probability: N/A
VegasSims Recommendation
NO ACTION
Insufficient Edge
Starting Pitchers Matchup
NYY
Cam Schlittler
Away Starter
ERA
1.95
WHIP
0.92
Record
14-6
IP
193.2
SO
239
GS
33
TB
Griffin Jax
Home Starter
ERA
3.53
WHIP
1.18
Record
8-10
IP
112.1
SO
116
GS
23
Top Offensive Performers
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New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York Yankees
L
vs Minnesota Twins
1 - 6
|
Jul 05, 2026
L
vs Minnesota Twins
4 - 11
|
Jul 04, 2026
W
vs Minnesota Twins
5 - 2
|
Jul 03, 2026
L
vs Detroit Tigers
2 - 6
|
Jul 01, 2026
L
vs Detroit Tigers
3 - 9
|
Jun 30, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays
L
@ Houston Astros
0 - 2
|
Jul 05, 2026
L
@ Houston Astros
8 - 10
|
Jul 04, 2026
W
@ Houston Astros
3 - 1
|
Jul 03, 2026
W
@ Kansas City Royals
5 - 2
|
Jul 02, 2026
W
@ Kansas City Royals
4 - 0
|
Jul 01, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
New York Yankees defeated Tampa Bay Rays
2 - 0
|
May 24, 2026
Away
Tampa Bay Rays defeated New York Yankees
4 - 2
|
May 22, 2026
Home
Tampa Bay Rays defeated New York Yankees
5 - 4
|
Apr 12, 2026
Home
Tampa Bay Rays defeated New York Yankees
5 - 4
|
Apr 11, 2026
Home
Tampa Bay Rays defeated New York Yankees
5 - 3
|
Apr 10, 2026