WNBA
Thursday, July 30 at 08:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIN
Minnesota Lynx
Away
24-6 (13-2 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
100.7
—
84.2
Projected Total: 184.9 (O/U: 186.3)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
MIN: -735
|
TOR: +505
TOR
Toronto Tempo
Home
10-18 (6-11 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
L
L
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Minnesota Lynx Win Prob
87.9%
No Value Edge
Toronto Tempo Win Prob
12.1%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 87.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIN -12.5 / TOR +12.5
MIN covers
(-110)
+8.5% Edge
60.9%
TOR covers
(-110)
39.1%
Total
O/U: 186.3
OVER
(-110)
45.3%
UNDER
(-110)
+2.3% Edge
54.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 78.8 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: TOR holds an Offensive Rating of 109.3 vs MIN's Defensive Rating of 97.5.
- • 📊 Season Records: TOR is 10-17 (Home: 6-10) vs MIN 23-6 (Away: 12-2).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: TOR factor: 0.964 | MIN factor: 1.05 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 87.9% of trials. Projected score: MIN 101 - TOR 84.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.0
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.5
ORtg: 124.8
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 113.9
DRtg: 102.5
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 112.7
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.8% / 44.5%
3-Point %
38.0% / 34.0%
Free Throw %
78.5% / 79.0%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
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Minnesota Lynx
Toronto Tempo
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Minnesota Lynx
W
vs Toronto Tempo
100 - 93
|
Jul 28, 2026
W
@ Seattle Storm
86 - 76
|
Jul 22, 2026
W
@ Seattle Storm
105 - 102
|
Jul 20, 2026
W
vs Portland Fire
101 - 93
|
Jul 18, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
96 - 87
|
Jul 15, 2026
Toronto Tempo
L
@ Minnesota Lynx
93 - 100
|
Jul 28, 2026
L
vs Las Vegas Aces
83 - 109
|
Jul 20, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
92 - 111
|
Jul 17, 2026
L
vs Washington Mystics
62 - 79
|
Jul 14, 2026
W
vs New York Liberty
93 - 91
|
Jul 12, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Minnesota Lynx defeated Toronto Tempo
100 - 93
|
Jul 28, 2026
Home
Minnesota Lynx defeated Toronto Tempo
100 - 72
|
May 21, 2026