WNBA
Monday, August 03 at 07:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
LV
Las Vegas Aces
Away
21-9 (12-4 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
L
W
W
L
Projected Final Score
93.3
—
84.9
Projected Total: 178.2 (O/U: 185.3)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
LV: +120
|
ATL: -140
ATL
Atlanta Dream
Home
18-11 (10-5 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Las Vegas Aces Win Prob
72.1%
+26.6% Value Edge
Atlanta Dream Win Prob
27.9%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Las Vegas Aces to win outright in 72.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: LV +2.5 / ATL -2.5
LV covers
(-110)
+24.8% Edge
77.2%
ATL covers
(-110)
22.8%
Total
O/U: 185.3
OVER
(-110)
30.3%
UNDER
(-110)
+17.3% Edge
69.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.9 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: ATL holds an Offensive Rating of 119.8 vs LV's Defensive Rating of 101.4.
- • 📊 Season Records: ATL is 18-10 (Home: 10-4) vs LV 20-9 (Away: 11-4).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.02 | LV factor: 1.022 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Las Vegas Aces winning outright in 72.1% of trials. Projected score: LV 93 - ATL 85.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.2
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.2
ORtg: 125.8
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 119.2
DRtg: 103.6
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 107.9
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
45.4% / 40.9%
3-Point %
35.0% / 30.8%
Free Throw %
81.5% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Las Vegas Aces
Atlanta Dream
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Las Vegas Aces
L
@ Chicago Sky
83 - 84
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs New York Liberty
104 - 99
|
Jul 30, 2026
W
vs Portland Fire
98 - 83
|
Jul 28, 2026
L
@ Washington Mystics
99 - 100
|
Jul 22, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
109 - 83
|
Jul 20, 2026
Atlanta Dream
W
vs Seattle Storm
98 - 89
|
Jul 31, 2026
W
@ Dallas Wings
82 - 81
|
Jul 29, 2026
W
vs Chicago Sky
93 - 91
|
Jul 19, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
111 - 92
|
Jul 17, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
101 - 92
|
Jul 13, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Las Vegas Aces defeated Atlanta Dream
85 - 84
|
May 17, 2026