MLS
Saturday, August 01 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NE
New England Revolution
Away
9-3-5 ( Away)
Last 5 Form
L
W
L
L
W
Projected Expected Goals (xG)
1.35
xG
—
1.73
xG
Projected Match xG: 3.08 (O/U: 3.1)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
NE: +195
|
MTL: +125
MTL
CF Montréal
Home
4-4-10 ( Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
L
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
New England Revolution Win
29.3%
Draw / Tie
25.0%
CF Montréal Win
45.7%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of New England Revolution Win: 29.3%, Draw: 25.0%, and CF Montréal Win: 45.7%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.3%
#2
2-1
9.7%
#3
1-2
7.7%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
61.4%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
38.6%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NE -0.4 / MTL +0.4
NE covers
(-110)
+1.9% Edge
54.3%
MTL covers
(-110)
45.7%
Total
O/U: 3.1
OVER
(-110)
+7.2% Edge
59.6%
UNDER
(-110)
40.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: MTL projected match xG: 1.7 | NE projected match xG: 1.35 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: MTL Win: 45.7% | Draw: 25.0% | NE Win: 29.3%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 61.4% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (7.7%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: MTL record: 4-4-10 (Home: ) vs NE record: 9-3-5 (Away: ).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **MTL Moneyline** (45.7% simulated win probability vs 25.0% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **NE N/A** (54.3% cover probability). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.5 Goals** (59.6% cover probability, projected total: 3.08). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (61.4% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New England Revolution
W
vs Atlanta United FC
4 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026
L
vs Toronto FC
0 - 0
|
Jul 22, 2026
L
@ Charlotte FC
0 - 1
|
May 23, 2026
W
vs Minnesota United FC
2 - 1
|
May 16, 2026
L
vs Nashville SC
0 - 3
|
May 13, 2026
CF Montréal
L
vs Inter Miami CF
0 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026
L
@ Nashville SC
0 - 1
|
Jul 22, 2026
L
vs Toronto FC
0 - 0
|
Jul 16, 2026
L
@ D.C. United
4 - 4
|
May 23, 2026
L
vs Chicago Fire FC
0 - 2
|
May 16, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
New England Revolution defeated CF Montréal
3 - 0
|
Apr 04, 2026