MLS
Saturday, August 01 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NSH
Nashville SC
Away
12-4-2 ( Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
W
L
Projected Expected Goals (xG)
1.34
xG
—
1.71
xG
Projected Match xG: 3.05 (O/U: 3.1)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
NSH: +205
|
DC: +120
DC
D.C. United
Home
5-8-5 ( Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
L
L
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Nashville SC Win
29.1%
Draw / Tie
26.1%
D.C. United Win
44.8%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Nashville SC Win: 29.1%, Draw: 26.1%, and D.C. United Win: 44.8%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
12.4%
#2
2-1
9.3%
#3
1-2
7.4%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
62.0%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
38.0%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NSH -0.4 / DC +0.4
NSH covers
(-110)
+2.8% Edge
55.2%
DC covers
(-110)
44.8%
Total
O/U: 3.1
OVER
(-110)
+6.7% Edge
59.1%
UNDER
(-110)
40.9%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: DC projected match xG: 1.7 | NSH projected match xG: 1.35 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: DC Win: 44.8% | Draw: 26.1% | NSH Win: 29.1%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 62.0% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.4%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: DC record: 5-8-5 (Home: ) vs NSH record: 12-4-2 (Away: ).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **DC Moneyline** (44.8% simulated win probability vs 26.1% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **NSH N/A** (55.2% cover probability). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.5 Goals** (59.1% cover probability, projected total: 3.05). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (62.0% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Nashville SC
L
@ Orlando City SC
0 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026
W
vs CF Montréal
1 - 0
|
Jul 22, 2026
W
vs Atlanta United FC
1 - 0
|
Jul 17, 2026
W
vs New York City FC
2 - 1
|
May 23, 2026
W
vs LAFC
3 - 2
|
May 17, 2026
D.C. United
W
vs Toronto FC
2 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026
L
@ Houston Dynamo FC
1 - 1
|
Jul 22, 2026
L
vs CF Montréal
4 - 4
|
May 23, 2026
L
vs St. Louis CITY SC
1 - 1
|
May 16, 2026
L
vs Chicago Fire FC
1 - 3
|
May 13, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
D.C. United defeated Nashville SC
2 - 2
|
May 09, 2026