WNBA
Thursday, August 06 at 09:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
LA
Los Angeles Sparks
Away
12-18
(7-9 Away)
Form
L
L
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
79.3
—
103.8
MIN
Minnesota Lynx
Home
25-7
(12-5 Home)
Form
W
W
W
W
W
- Spread
-
LA +16.6 (-110)MIN -16.6 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 187.5 (-110)Simulated 183.1
- Moneyline
-
LA +880MIN -1655
Simulated Outcome Probability
Los Angeles Sparks
4.1%
Minnesota Lynx
95.9%
No edge at +880
+1.6% edge at -1655
Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 95.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: LA +16.6 / MIN -16.6
LA covers
(-110)
29.1%
MIN covers
(-110)
+18.5% Edge
70.9%
Total
O/U: 187.5
OVER
(-110)
38.3%
UNDER
(-110)
+9.3% Edge
61.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ๐ Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 78.6 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • ๐ Offensive/Defensive Ratings: MIN holds an Offensive Rating of 135.0 vs LA's Defensive Rating of 120.1.
- • ๐ Season Records: MIN is 25-6 (Home: 12-4) vs LA 11-18 (Away: 6-9).
- • ๐ฅ Momentum Factors: MIN factor: 1.05 | LA factor: 0.964 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 95.9% of trials. Projected score: LA 79 - MIN 104.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
๐ Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.0
ORtg: 106.0
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 128.0
DRtg: 115.7
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 103.6
๐ฏ Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
42.5% / 44.8%
3-Point %
32.5% / 38.0%
Free Throw %
76.8% / 78.5%
โก Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Los Angeles Sparks
Minnesota Lynx
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Los Angeles Sparks
L
@ Chicago Sky
88 - 95
|
Aug 05, 2026
W
@ Portland Fire
106 - 101
|
Aug 02, 2026
L
vs New York Liberty
109 - 113
|
Jul 28, 2026
L
vs Phoenix Mercury
82 - 86
|
Jul 22, 2026
L
@ Dallas Wings
82 - 90
|
Jul 19, 2026
Minnesota Lynx
W
vs Indiana Fever
108 - 100
|
Aug 02, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
104 - 72
|
Jul 30, 2026
W
vs Toronto Tempo
100 - 93
|
Jul 28, 2026
W
@ Seattle Storm
86 - 76
|
Jul 22, 2026
W
@ Seattle Storm
105 - 102
|
Jul 20, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Minnesota Lynx defeated Los Angeles Sparks
96 - 87
|
Jul 15, 2026
Away
Minnesota Lynx defeated Los Angeles Sparks
99 - 83
|
Jun 17, 2026