MLB
Wednesday, July 08 at 06:35 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CHC
Chicago Cubs
Away
51-40
(24-21 Away)
Form
W
L
L
W
W
Projected Final Score
4.9
—
5.1
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
Home
42-50
(24-24 Home)
Form
W
W
W
L
L
- Spread
-
CHC +1.5 (-175)BAL -1.5 (+145)
- Total
-
Posted 10.0 (-100)Simulated 10.0
- Moneyline
-
CHC +110BAL -130
Simulated Outcome Probability
Chicago Cubs
46.2%
Baltimore Orioles
53.8%
No edge at +110
No edge at -130
Our 10,000 iterations project the Baltimore Orioles to win outright in 53.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CHC +1.5 / BAL -1.5
CHC covers
(-175)
61.9%
BAL covers
(+145)
38.1%
Total
O/U: 10.0
OVER
(-100)
44.8%
UNDER
(-100)
+5.2% Edge
55.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: CHC starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in On-Base Percentage (+0.016).
- • 🐂 Bullpen Advantage: BAL relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the CHC bullpen.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: CHC enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 78%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Baltimore Orioles winning outright in 53.8% of run trials, with a projected score of CHC 4.8 - BAL 5.0. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with CHC +1.5 covering in 61.9% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 10.0 which hit in 55.2% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
Simulated NRFI Probability
N/A
No Value Edge
Vegas Consensus NRFI Odds
N/A
Implied Probability: N/A
VegasSims Recommendation
NO ACTION
Insufficient Edge
Starting Pitchers Matchup
CHC
Colin Rea
Away Starter
ERA
4.34
WHIP
1.33
Record
8-8
IP
137.0
SO
101
GS
19
BAL
Dean Kremer
Home Starter
ERA
4.97
WHIP
1.20
Record
4-5
IP
83.1
SO
82
GS
16
Top Offensive Performers
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Chicago Cubs
Baltimore Orioles
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Chicago Cubs
W
@ Baltimore Orioles
5 - 2
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
vs St. Louis Cardinals
6 - 4
|
Jul 05, 2026
L
vs St. Louis Cardinals
0 - 3
|
Jul 04, 2026
L
vs St. Louis Cardinals
1 - 17
|
Jul 03, 2026
W
vs San Diego Padres
23 - 3
|
Jul 01, 2026
Baltimore Orioles
L
vs Chicago Cubs
2 - 5
|
Jul 07, 2026
L
@ Cincinnati Reds
2 - 3
|
Jul 05, 2026
W
@ Cincinnati Reds
8 - 5
|
Jul 04, 2026
W
@ Cincinnati Reds
3 - 0
|
Jul 03, 2026
W
vs Chicago White Sox
6 - 1
|
Jul 01, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Chicago Cubs defeated Baltimore Orioles
5 - 2
|
Jul 07, 2026