MLS
Saturday, August 08 at 04:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
HOU
Houston Dynamo FC
Away
10-2-6
Form
W
D
D
W
W
Projected Expected Goals
1.33
—
1.69
Expected Goals
NE
New England Revolution
Home
9-3-6
Form
W
L
D
W
D
- Spread
-
HOU -0.4 (-110)NE +0.4 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.5 (-110)Simulated 3.0
- Moneyline
-
HOU +225NE +110
Simulated Outcome Probability
Houston Dynamo FC Win
29.4%
Draw / Tie
25.8%
New England Revolution Win
44.8%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Houston Dynamo FC Win: 29.4%, Draw: 25.8%, and New England Revolution Win: 44.8%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.8%
#2
2-1
9.3%
#3
1-2
7.5%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
61.0%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
39.0%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: HOU -0.4 / NE +0.4
HOU covers
(-110)
+2.8% Edge
55.2%
NE covers
(-110)
44.8%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(-110)
+5.9% Edge
58.3%
UNDER
(-110)
41.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: NE projected match xG: 1.7 | HOU projected match xG: 1.35 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: NE Win: 44.8% | Draw: 25.8% | HOU Win: 29.4%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 61.0% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.8%), 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.5%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: NE record: 9-3-5 (Home: ) vs HOU record: 9-2-6 (Away: ).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **NE Moneyline** (44.8% simulated win probability vs 25.8% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **HOU N/A** (55.2% cover probability). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.5 Goals** (58.3% cover probability, projected total: 3.02). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (61.0% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Houston Dynamo FC
W
@ Sporting Kansas City
2 - 0
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs Austin FC
3 - 0
|
Jul 25, 2026
L
vs D.C. United
1 - 1
|
Jul 22, 2026
L
@ LA Galaxy
1 - 1
|
May 23, 2026
W
vs Vancouver Whitecaps
1 - 0
|
May 16, 2026
New England Revolution
L
@ CF Montréal
2 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs Atlanta United FC
4 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026
L
vs Toronto FC
0 - 0
|
Jul 22, 2026
L
@ Charlotte FC
0 - 1
|
May 23, 2026
W
vs Minnesota United FC
2 - 1
|
May 16, 2026