Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals
- Spread
-
PHI -1.5 (+105)STL +1.5 (-125)
- Total
-
Posted 7.9 (-105)Simulated 7.4
- Moneyline
-
PHI -165STL +145
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the Philadelphia Phillies to win outright in 73.6% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • đȘ Lineup Depth: PHI starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in On-Base Percentage (+0.032) and Slugging (+0.064).
- • đ Bullpen Advantage: PHI relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the STL bullpen.
- • đïž Ballpark Factor: Played at STL's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the Philadelphia Phillies winning outright in 73.6% of run trials, with a projected score of PHI 4.9 - STL 2.5. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with PHI -1.5 covering in 59.1% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 7.9 which hit in 56.9% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **50.0%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Zack Wheeler (K%: 30.6%, BB%: 7.0%) faces STL's top of the order (avg OBP: 35.5%). Home starter Kyle Leahy (K%: 20.7%, BB%: 8.4%) matchups against PHI's first three hitters (avg OBP: 34.6%). No significant betting edge identified for the first inning market.