St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
- Spread
-
STL +1.5 (-125)CHC -1.5 (+105)
- Total
-
Posted 8.0 (-105)Simulated 9.8
- Moneyline
-
STL +165CHC -190
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the Chicago Cubs to win outright in 79.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: CHC starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in On-Base Percentage (+0.038) and Slugging (+0.067).
- • 🐂 Bullpen Advantage: STL relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the CHC bullpen.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the Chicago Cubs winning outright in 79.1% of run trials, with a projected score of STL 3.3 - CHC 6.4. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with CHC -1.5 covering in 65.0% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the OVER 8.0 which hit in 62.1% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **41.0%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Matthew Liberatore (K%: 22.0%, BB%: 9.6%) faces CHC's top of the order (avg OBP: 36.5%). Home starter Clay Holmes (K%: 19.7%, BB%: 9.0%) matchups against STL's first three hitters (avg OBP: 35.5%). No significant betting edge identified for the first inning market.