New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
- Spread
-
NYY -1.5 (+145)BAL +1.5 (-170)
- Total
-
Posted 8.5 (-115)Simulated 7.3
- Moneyline
-
NYY -110BAL -100
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Yankees to win outright in 60.5% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: NYY starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in Slugging (+0.034).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Yankees winning outright in 60.5% of run trials, with a projected score of NYY 4.2 - BAL 3.1. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with BAL +1.5 covering in 53.9% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 8.5 which hit in 65.5% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **58.4%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Carlos Rodón (K%: 26.8%, BB%: 13.9%) faces BAL's top of the order (avg OBP: 33.7%). Home starter Shane Baz (K%: 20.4%, BB%: 8.4%) matchups against NYY's first three hitters (avg OBP: 31.6%). **Best Bet**: **NRFI (Yes)**. With both starters showing strong control/strikeout rates, our simulator identifies a solid value edge (+6.0%) at -110.