MLS
Wednesday, August 19 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NE
New England Revolution
Away
10-3-7
Form
D
W
D
L
L
Projected Expected Goals
1.35
—
1.69
Expected Goals
DC
D.C. United
Home
5-9-6
Form
D
D
W
D
D
- Spread
-
NE -0.3 (-110)DC +0.3 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.5 (-110)Simulated 3.0
- Moneyline
-
NE +225DC +115
Simulated Outcome Probability
New England Revolution Win
29.3%
Draw / Tie
26.6%
D.C. United Win
44.1%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of New England Revolution Win: 29.3%, Draw: 26.6%, and D.C. United Win: 44.1%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
12.4%
#2
2-1
9.0%
#3
1-2
7.5%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
61.8%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
38.2%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NE -0.3 / DC +0.3
NE covers
(-110)
+3.5% Edge
55.9%
DC covers
(-110)
44.1%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(-110)
+6.4% Edge
58.8%
UNDER
(-110)
41.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: DC projected match xG: 1.7 | NE projected match xG: 1.35 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: DC Win: 44.1% | Draw: 26.6% | NE Win: 29.3%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 61.8% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: DC record: 5-9-6 (Home: ) vs NE record: 10-3-7 (Away: ).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **DC Moneyline** (44.1% simulated win probability vs 26.6% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **NE N/A** (55.9% cover probability). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.5 Goals** (58.8% cover probability, projected total: 3.04). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (61.8% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New England Revolution
L
@ Toronto FC
1 - 2
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
vs Houston Dynamo FC
0 - 2
|
Aug 08, 2026
L
@ CF Montréal
2 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs Atlanta United FC
4 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026
L
vs Toronto FC
0 - 0
|
Jul 22, 2026
D.C. United
L
@ CF Montréal
1 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
vs Nashville SC
2 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs Toronto FC
2 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026
L
@ Houston Dynamo FC
1 - 1
|
Jul 22, 2026
L
vs CF Montréal
4 - 4
|
May 23, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
New England Revolution defeated D.C. United
1 - 0
|
Apr 11, 2026