WNBA
Thursday, August 27 at 10:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
WSH
Washington Mystics
Away
24-15 (11-8 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
W
L
W
W
Projected Final Score
90.7
—
83.5
Projected Total: 174.2 (O/U: 166.1)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
WSH: -180
|
PHO: +150
PHO
Phoenix Mercury
Home
13-26 (5-14 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
W
L
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Washington Mystics Win Prob
69.2%
+4.9% Value Edge
Phoenix Mercury Win Prob
30.8%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Washington Mystics to win outright in 69.2% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: WSH -4.2 / PHO +4.2
WSH covers
(-110)
+6.5% Edge
58.9%
PHO covers
(-110)
41.1%
Total
O/U: 166.1
OVER
(-110)
+18.0% Edge
70.4%
UNDER
(-110)
29.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 78.2 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: PHO holds an Offensive Rating of 105.8 vs WSH's Defensive Rating of 101.8.
- • 📊 Season Records: PHO is 13-25 (Home: 5-13) vs WSH 23-15 (Away: 10-8).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: PHO factor: 0.964 | WSH factor: 1.022 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Washington Mystics winning outright in 69.2% of trials. Projected score: WSH 91 - PHO 84.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.6
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.5
ORtg: 114.1
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 107.1
DRtg: 104.0
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 111.0
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
43.3% / 44.0%
3-Point %
36.8% / 33.6%
Free Throw %
76.2% / 81.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Washington Mystics
Phoenix Mercury
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Washington Mystics
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
94 - 84
|
Aug 25, 2026
W
@ Portland Fire
105 - 100
|
Aug 23, 2026
L
vs Minnesota Lynx
84 - 94
|
Aug 21, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
80 - 70
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
@ Las Vegas Aces
76 - 83
|
Aug 13, 2026
Phoenix Mercury
L
vs Washington Mystics
84 - 94
|
Aug 25, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
89 - 99
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
vs Portland Fire
85 - 88
|
Aug 16, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
94 - 87
|
Aug 11, 2026
L
@ Washington Mystics
75 - 95
|
Aug 09, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Washington Mystics defeated Phoenix Mercury
94 - 84
|
Aug 25, 2026
Home
Washington Mystics defeated Phoenix Mercury
95 - 75
|
Aug 09, 2026
Injury Reports
Washington Mystics 0 reported
No major injuries reported.