Baltimore Orioles
Away
65-68 (31-34 Away)
St. Louis Cardinals
Home
66-68 (32-36 Home)
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the Baltimore Orioles to win outright in 52.5% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • đïž Ballpark Factor: Played at STL's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • đ„ Momentum Streak: BAL enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 62%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the Baltimore Orioles winning outright in 52.5% of run trials, with a projected score of BAL 3.8 - STL 3.4. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with STL +1.5 covering in 61.7% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 8.0 which hit in 63.1% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **60.5%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Trevor Rogers (K%: 20.5%, BB%: 7.0%) faces STL's top of the order (avg OBP: 33.8%). Home starter Gordon Graceffo (K%: 15.0%, BB%: 12.6%) matchups against BAL's first three hitters (avg OBP: 33.0%). No significant betting edge identified for the first inning market.