WNBA
Friday, August 28 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
POR
Portland Fire
Away
16-23 (8-12 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
86.2
—
88.2
Projected Total: 174.4 (O/U: 178.8)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
POR: +580
|
ATL: -890
ATL
Atlanta Dream
Home
25-14 (12-7 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Portland Fire Win Prob
44.1%
+29.4% Value Edge
Atlanta Dream Win Prob
55.9%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Atlanta Dream to win outright in 55.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: POR +12.8 / ATL -12.8
POR covers
(-110)
+24.9% Edge
77.3%
ATL covers
(-110)
22.8%
Total
O/U: 178.8
OVER
(-110)
38.2%
UNDER
(-110)
+9.4% Edge
61.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.0 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: ATL holds an Offensive Rating of 124.3 vs POR's Defensive Rating of 111.5.
- • 📊 Season Records: ATL is 25-13 (Home: 12-6) vs POR 15-23 (Away: 7-12).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.021 | POR factor: 0.993 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Atlanta Dream winning outright in 55.9% of trials. Projected score: POR 86 - ATL 88.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 79.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.2
ORtg: 124.8
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 124.6
DRtg: 110.6
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 106.5
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
43.8% / 40.9%
3-Point %
32.5% / 30.8%
Free Throw %
78.5% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Portland Fire
Atlanta Dream
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Portland Fire
L
@ Dallas Wings
78 - 96
|
Aug 25, 2026
L
vs Washington Mystics
100 - 105
|
Aug 23, 2026
L
@ Toronto Tempo
79 - 82
|
Aug 21, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
88 - 85
|
Aug 16, 2026
W
@ Seattle Storm
84 - 82
|
Aug 14, 2026
Atlanta Dream
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
78 - 71
|
Aug 24, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
99 - 89
|
Aug 22, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
124 - 88
|
Aug 20, 2026
W
@ Las Vegas Aces
97 - 82
|
Aug 18, 2026
L
vs Indiana Fever
91 - 95
|
Aug 16, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Portland Fire defeated Atlanta Dream
102 - 92
|
Jul 11, 2026
Away
Atlanta Dream defeated Portland Fire
86 - 66
|
May 29, 2026