WNBA Friday, August 28 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
POR

Portland Fire

Away

16-23 (8-12 Away)

Last 5 Form
W W L L L
Projected Final Score
86.2 88.2
Projected Total: 174.4 (O/U: 178.8)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
POR: +580 | ATL: -890
ATL

Atlanta Dream

Home

25-14 (12-7 Home)

Last 5 Form
L W W W W

Simulated Outcome Probability

Portland Fire Win Prob
44.1%
+29.4% Value Edge
Atlanta Dream Win Prob
55.9%
No Value Edge

Our 10,000 iterations project the Atlanta Dream to win outright in 55.9% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: POR +12.8 / ATL -12.8
POR covers (-110) +24.9% Edge 77.3%
ATL covers (-110) 22.8%
Total O/U: 178.8
OVER (-110) 38.2%
UNDER (-110) +9.4% Edge 61.8%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.0 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: ATL holds an Offensive Rating of 124.3 vs POR's Defensive Rating of 111.5.
  • 📊 Season Records: ATL is 25-13 (Home: 12-6) vs POR 15-23 (Away: 7-12).
  • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.021 | POR factor: 0.993 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the Atlanta Dream winning outright in 55.9% of trials. Projected score: POR 86 - ATL 88.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

📊 Statistical Comparison

Pace: 79.8 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 78.2
ORtg: 124.8 Offensive Rating ORtg: 124.6
DRtg: 110.6 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 106.5

🎯 Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
43.8% / 40.9%
3-Point %
32.5% / 30.8%
Free Throw %
78.5% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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Portland Fire

Atlanta Dream

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Portland Fire

L @ Dallas Wings
78 - 96 | Aug 25, 2026
L vs Washington Mystics
100 - 105 | Aug 23, 2026
L @ Toronto Tempo
79 - 82 | Aug 21, 2026
W @ Phoenix Mercury
88 - 85 | Aug 16, 2026
W @ Seattle Storm
84 - 82 | Aug 14, 2026

Atlanta Dream

W @ Los Angeles Sparks
78 - 71 | Aug 24, 2026
W @ Phoenix Mercury
99 - 89 | Aug 22, 2026
W @ Los Angeles Sparks
124 - 88 | Aug 20, 2026
W @ Las Vegas Aces
97 - 82 | Aug 18, 2026
L vs Indiana Fever
91 - 95 | Aug 16, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Away Portland Fire defeated Atlanta Dream
102 - 92 | Jul 11, 2026
Away Atlanta Dream defeated Portland Fire
86 - 66 | May 29, 2026

Injury Reports

Portland Fire 5 reported

G Sarah Ashlee Barker
Out
F Frieda Buhner
Out
F Sania Feagin
Out
C Luisa Geiselsoder
Out
G Carla Leite
Out

Atlanta Dream 1 reported

F Brionna Jones
Out