WNBA
Friday, August 28 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CON
Connecticut Sun
Away
10-29
(3-16 Away)
Form
W
L
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
84.6
—
95.1
IND
Indiana Fever
Home
26-14
(14-6 Home)
Form
W
W
L
L
W
- Spread
-
CON +17.1 (-110)IND -17.1 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 177.6 (-110)Simulated 179.7
- Moneyline
-
CON +1010IND -2065
Simulated Outcome Probability
Connecticut Sun
22.4%
Indiana Fever
77.6%
+13.4% edge at +1010
No edge at -2065
Our 10,000 iterations project the Indiana Fever to win outright in 77.6% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CON +17.1 / IND -17.1
CON covers
(-110)
+16.9% Edge
69.3%
IND covers
(-110)
30.7%
Total
O/U: 177.6
OVER
(-110)
+3.3% Edge
55.7%
UNDER
(-110)
44.3%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 76.9 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: IND holds an Offensive Rating of 131.4 vs CON's Defensive Rating of 109.3.
- • 📊 Season Records: IND is 25-14 (Home: 13-6) vs CON 10-28 (Away: 3-15).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: IND factor: 1.022 | CON factor: 0.978 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Indiana Fever winning outright in 77.6% of trials. Projected score: CON 85 - IND 95.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 76.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.0
ORtg: 112.9
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 128.0
DRtg: 107.0
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 113.4
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.1% / 45.3%
3-Point %
32.7% / 35.6%
Free Throw %
81.0% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Connecticut Sun
Indiana Fever
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Connecticut Sun
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
64 - 89
|
Aug 26, 2026
W
vs Chicago Sky
87 - 81
|
Aug 25, 2026
L
@ Los Angeles Sparks
68 - 77
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
@ Las Vegas Aces
78 - 101
|
Aug 20, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
85 - 77
|
Aug 18, 2026
Indiana Fever
W
@ Chicago Sky
113 - 90
|
Aug 23, 2026
L
@ New York Liberty
102 - 109
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
@ Dallas Wings
85 - 91
|
Aug 20, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
101 - 95
|
Aug 18, 2026
W
@ Atlanta Dream
95 - 91
|
Aug 16, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Indiana Fever defeated Connecticut Sun
123 - 88
|
Jul 22, 2026
Away
Indiana Fever defeated Connecticut Sun
85 - 75
|
Jun 13, 2026