WNBA
Saturday, August 29 at 10:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
TOR
Toronto Tempo
Away
11-29
(4-16 Away)
Form
L
W
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
89.8
—
92.1
PHO
Phoenix Mercury
Home
14-26
(6-14 Home)
Form
W
L
L
L
L
- Spread
-
TOR +9.4 (-110)PHO -9.4 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 174.0 (-105)Simulated 181.9
- Moneyline
-
TOR +330PHO -435
Simulated Outcome Probability
Toronto Tempo
43.9%
Phoenix Mercury
56.1%
+20.6% edge at +330
No edge at -435
Our 10,000 iterations project the Phoenix Mercury to win outright in 56.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: TOR +9.4 / PHO -9.4
TOR covers
(-110)
+16.1% Edge
68.5%
PHO covers
(-110)
31.5%
Total
O/U: 174.0
OVER
(-105)
+19.1% Edge
70.3%
UNDER
(-110)
29.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 80.1 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: PHO holds an Offensive Rating of 111.0 vs TOR's Defensive Rating of 115.4.
- • 📊 Season Records: PHO is 13-26 (Home: 5-14) vs TOR 11-28 (Away: 4-15).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: PHO factor: 0.979 | TOR factor: 0.979 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Phoenix Mercury winning outright in 56.1% of trials. Projected score: TOR 90 - PHO 92.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.5
ORtg: 111.6
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 114.1
DRtg: 113.1
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 109.2
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.5% / 44.0%
3-Point %
34.0% / 33.6%
Free Throw %
79.0% / 81.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Toronto Tempo
Phoenix Mercury
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Toronto Tempo
L
@ Las Vegas Aces
73 - 93
|
Aug 28, 2026
L
@ Seattle Storm
78 - 90
|
Aug 26, 2026
L
vs Las Vegas Aces
78 - 88
|
Aug 23, 2026
W
vs Portland Fire
82 - 79
|
Aug 21, 2026
L
vs Indiana Fever
95 - 101
|
Aug 18, 2026
Phoenix Mercury
L
vs Washington Mystics
73 - 80
|
Aug 27, 2026
L
vs Washington Mystics
84 - 94
|
Aug 25, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
89 - 99
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
vs Portland Fire
85 - 88
|
Aug 16, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
94 - 87
|
Aug 11, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Phoenix Mercury defeated Toronto Tempo
89 - 80
|
Jun 27, 2026
Away
Toronto Tempo defeated Phoenix Mercury
98 - 90
|
May 19, 2026