MLS
Sunday, August 30 at 07:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
DAL
FC Dallas
Away
9-7-6 ( Away)
Last 5 Form
L
L
W
W
L
Projected Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
xG
—
1.89
xG
Projected Match xG: 3.27 (O/U: 2.8)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
DAL: +240
|
STL: +100
STL
St. Louis CITY SC
Home
9-7-6 ( Home)
Last 5 Form
W
L
W
L
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
FC Dallas Win
26.7%
Draw / Tie
24.5%
St. Louis CITY SC Win
48.8%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of FC Dallas Win: 26.7%, Draw: 24.5%, and St. Louis CITY SC Win: 48.8%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.9%
#2
2-1
9.9%
#3
2-0
6.7%
#4
1-0
6.6%
#5
1-2
6.5%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
64.4%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
35.6%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: DAL +0.5 / STL -0.5
DAL covers
(-125)
51.2%
STL covers
(-100)
48.8%
Total
O/U: 2.8
OVER
(-125)
+7.8% Edge
63.4%
UNDER
(-105)
36.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: STL projected match xG: 1.91 | DAL projected match xG: 1.38 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: STL Win: 48.8% | Draw: 24.5% | DAL Win: 26.7%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 64.4% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (6.7%), 1-0 (6.6%), 1-2 (6.5%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: STL record: 9-6-6 (Home: ) vs DAL record: 9-6-6 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: STL factor: 1.041 | DAL factor: 1.001 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **STL Moneyline** (48.8% simulated win probability vs 24.5% draw). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.8 Goals** (63.4% cover probability, projected total: 3.27). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (64.4% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
FC Dallas
L
@ Vancouver Whitecaps
0 - 5
|
Aug 22, 2026
W
@ Real Salt Lake
4 - 3
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
@ Austin FC
2 - 1
|
Aug 16, 2026
L
@ LA Galaxy
0 - 0
|
Aug 01, 2026
L
@ San Diego FC
0 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026
St. Louis CITY SC
W
vs Houston Dynamo FC
2 - 1
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
@ Sporting Kansas City
1 - 1
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
@ San Jose Earthquakes
3 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
vs Real Salt Lake
1 - 1
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs Colorado Rapids
1 - 0
|
Jul 25, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
St. Louis CITY SC defeated FC Dallas
1 - 1
|
Apr 11, 2026