WNBA Sunday, August 30 at 03:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIN

Minnesota Lynx

Away

31-9 (17-3 Away)

Last 5 Form
W W W W L
Projected Final Score
92.7 82.0
Projected Total: 174.7 (O/U: 176.1)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
MIN: -140 | ATL: +120
ATL

Atlanta Dream

Home

26-14 (13-7 Home)

Last 5 Form
W W W W L

Simulated Outcome Probability

Minnesota Lynx Win Prob
78.1%
+19.8% Value Edge
Atlanta Dream Win Prob
21.9%
No Value Edge

Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 78.1% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: MIN -2.4 / ATL +2.4
MIN covers (-110) +21.0% Edge 73.4%
ATL covers (-110) 26.7%
Total O/U: 176.1
OVER (-110) 44.4%
UNDER (-110) +3.2% Edge 55.6%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 75.8 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: ATL holds an Offensive Rating of 119.9 vs MIN's Defensive Rating of 99.7.
  • 📊 Season Records: ATL is 25-14 (Home: 12-7) vs MIN 31-8 (Away: 17-2).
  • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.006 | MIN factor: 1.036 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 78.1% of trials. Projected score: MIN 93 - ATL 82.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

📊 Statistical Comparison

Pace: 78.0 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 78.2
ORtg: 127.5 Offensive Rating ORtg: 122.8
DRtg: 103.6 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 106.8

🎯 Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
44.8% / 40.9%
3-Point %
38.0% / 30.8%
Free Throw %
78.5% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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Minnesota Lynx

Atlanta Dream

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Minnesota Lynx

L vs Golden State Valkyries
66 - 80 | Aug 24, 2026
W @ Washington Mystics
94 - 84 | Aug 21, 2026
W @ Las Vegas Aces
92 - 87 | Aug 15, 2026
W @ Portland Fire
85 - 81 | Aug 12, 2026
W vs Dallas Wings
103 - 90 | Aug 09, 2026

Atlanta Dream

L vs Portland Fire
83 - 101 | Aug 28, 2026
W @ Los Angeles Sparks
78 - 71 | Aug 24, 2026
W @ Phoenix Mercury
99 - 89 | Aug 22, 2026
W @ Los Angeles Sparks
124 - 88 | Aug 20, 2026
W @ Las Vegas Aces
97 - 82 | Aug 18, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Home Minnesota Lynx defeated Atlanta Dream
96 - 81 | May 27, 2026

Injury Reports

Minnesota Lynx 3 reported

G Elena Buenavida
Out
F Antonia Delaere
Out
F Dorka Juhasz
Out

Atlanta Dream 1 reported

F Brionna Jones
Out