MLS
Sunday, August 30 at 04:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NE
New England Revolution
Away
11-4-7
Form
D
L
L
W
D
Projected Expected Goals
1.42
—
1.63
Expected Goals
CLB
Columbus Crew
Home
5-5-12
Form
W
D
L
L
L
- Spread
-
NE -0.2 (-110)CLB +0.2 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.1 (-110)Simulated 3.1
- Moneyline
-
NE +220CLB +115
Simulated Outcome Probability
New England Revolution Win
32.5%
Draw / Tie
26.3%
Columbus Crew Win
41.2%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of New England Revolution Win: 32.5%, Draw: 26.3%, and Columbus Crew Win: 41.2%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
12.5%
#2
2-1
8.5%
#3
1-2
8.0%
#4
2-0
6.4%
#5
1-0
6.3%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
62.1%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
37.9%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NE -0.2 / CLB +0.2
NE covers
(-110)
32.5%
CLB covers
(-110)
+15.1% Edge
67.5%
Total
O/U: 3.1
OVER
(-110)
36.3%
UNDER
(-110)
+11.3% Edge
63.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CLB projected match xG: 1.63 | NE projected match xG: 1.42 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CLB Win: 41.2% | Draw: 26.3% | NE Win: 32.5%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 62.1% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (12.5%), 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.0%), 2-0 (6.4%), 1-0 (6.3%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: CLB record: 5-5-11 (Home: ) vs NE record: 10-4-7 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CLB factor: 0.971 | NE factor: 0.981 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CLB Moneyline** (41.2% simulated win probability vs 26.3% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CLB +0.2** (67.5% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.5 Goals** (63.7% cover probability, projected total: 3.05). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (62.1% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New England Revolution
L
vs New York City FC
1 - 1
|
Aug 23, 2026
W
@ D.C. United
3 - 0
|
Aug 19, 2026
L
@ Toronto FC
1 - 2
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
vs Houston Dynamo FC
0 - 2
|
Aug 08, 2026
L
@ CF Montréal
2 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026
Columbus Crew
L
@ Nashville SC
2 - 3
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
vs CF Montréal
1 - 2
|
Aug 19, 2026
L
@ Charlotte FC
1 - 3
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
@ Inter Miami CF
2 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs FC Cincinnati
2 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
New England Revolution defeated Columbus Crew
2 - 1
|
Apr 18, 2026