MLS
Friday, September 04 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NSH
Nashville SC
Away
16-4-2 ( Away)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
W
W
Projected Expected Goals (xG)
1.64
xG
—
1.58
xG
Projected Match xG: 3.22 (O/U: 2.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
NSH: +155
|
NYC: +155
NYC
New York City FC
Home
7-7-8 ( Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
L
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Nashville SC Win
38.5%
Draw / Tie
25.7%
New York City FC Win
35.8%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Nashville SC Win: 38.5%, Draw: 25.7%, and New York City FC Win: 35.8%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.5%
#2
2-1
8.4%
#3
1-2
8.2%
#4
2-2
7.0%
#5
0-2
5.6%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
65.1%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
34.9%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NSH +0.1 / NYC -0.1
NSH covers
(-130)
+7.7% Edge
64.2%
NYC covers
(+100)
35.8%
Total
O/U: 2.5
OVER
(-125)
+6.7% Edge
62.3%
UNDER
(-105)
37.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: NYC projected match xG: 1.57 | NSH projected match xG: 1.62 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: NYC Win: 35.8% | Draw: 25.7% | NSH Win: 38.5%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 65.1% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.5%), 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.0%), 0-2 (5.6%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: NYC record: 7-7-8 (Home: ) vs NSH record: 16-4-2 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: NYC factor: 0.961 | NSH factor: 1.061 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **NSH Moneyline** (38.5% simulated win probability). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **NSH +0.1** (64.2% cover probability). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.5 Goals** (62.3% cover probability, projected total: 3.22). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (65.1% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Nashville SC
W
vs FC Cincinnati
4 - 0
|
Aug 29, 2026
W
vs Columbus Crew
3 - 2
|
Aug 22, 2026
W
@ Red Bull New York
1 - 0
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
vs Inter Miami CF
4 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
@ D.C. United
2 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026
New York City FC
L
@ Toronto FC
1 - 1
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
@ New England Revolution
1 - 1
|
Aug 23, 2026
L
@ FC Cincinnati
1 - 2
|
Aug 19, 2026
L
vs Philadelphia Union
2 - 3
|
Aug 16, 2026
L
vs Toronto FC
1 - 1
|
Jul 31, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Nashville SC defeated New York City FC
2 - 1
|
May 23, 2026