MLS
Saturday, September 05 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
COL
Colorado Rapids
Away
10-1-11 ( Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
L
W
Projected Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
xG
—
1.55
xG
Projected Match xG: 2.98 (O/U: 3.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
COL: +175
|
CLB: +145
CLB
Columbus Crew
Home
5-5-12 ( Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
L
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Colorado Rapids Win
33.9%
Draw / Tie
27.3%
Columbus Crew Win
38.8%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Colorado Rapids Win: 33.9%, Draw: 27.3%, and Columbus Crew Win: 38.8%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
12.6%
#2
2-1
8.7%
#3
1-2
8.4%
#4
2-2
6.6%
#5
1-0
6.4%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
61.9%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
38.1%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: COL -0.1 / CLB +0.1
COL covers
(-110)
33.9%
CLB covers
(-110)
+13.7% Edge
66.1%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(-110)
35.0%
UNDER
(-110)
+12.6% Edge
65.0%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CLB projected match xG: 1.57 | COL projected match xG: 1.43 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CLB Win: 38.8% | Draw: 27.3% | COL Win: 33.9%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 61.9% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.4%), 2-2 (6.6%), 1-0 (6.4%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: CLB record: 5-5-12 (Home: ) vs COL record: 10-1-11 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CLB factor: 0.941 | COL factor: 1.051 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CLB Moneyline** (38.8% simulated win probability vs 27.3% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CLB +0.1** (66.1% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.5 Goals** (65.0% cover probability, projected total: 2.98). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (61.9% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Colorado Rapids
W
vs Real Salt Lake
1 - 0
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
@ San Diego FC
0 - 3
|
Aug 22, 2026
W
vs LAFC
1 - 0
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
vs Sporting Kansas City
2 - 0
|
Aug 15, 2026
W
vs Austin FC
1 - 0
|
Aug 01, 2026
Columbus Crew
L
vs New England Revolution
1 - 3
|
Aug 30, 2026
L
@ Nashville SC
2 - 3
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
vs CF Montréal
1 - 2
|
Aug 19, 2026
L
@ Charlotte FC
1 - 3
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
@ Inter Miami CF
2 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026