Houston Astros
Philadelphia Phillies
- Spread
-
HOU +1.5 (-135)PHI -1.5 (+115)
- Total
-
Posted 8.5 (-110)Simulated 9.6
- Moneyline
-
HOU +160PHI -190
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the Philadelphia Phillies to win outright in 64.4% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Hosted at PHI's stadium, which features high run and home-run factors favoring overall offensive projections.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the Philadelphia Phillies winning outright in 64.4% of run trials, with a projected score of HOU 4.1 - PHI 5.4. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with HOU +1.5 covering in 52.2% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the OVER 8.5 which hit in 56.2% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **46.2%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Cristian Javier (K%: 22.4%, BB%: 10.8%) faces PHI's top of the order (avg OBP: 34.6%). Home starter Zack Wheeler (K%: 29.8%, BB%: 8.6%) matchups against HOU's first three hitters (avg OBP: 36.4%). No significant betting edge identified for the first inning market.