WNBA
Thursday, September 17 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CON
Connecticut Sun
Away
10-31
(3-18 Away)
Form
L
W
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
80.5
—
87.2
ATL
Atlanta Dream
Home
27-14
(14-7 Home)
Form
W
W
W
L
W
- Spread
-
CON +16.6 (-110)ATL -16.6 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 168.3 (-110)Simulated 167.7
- Moneyline
-
CON +975ATL -1955
Simulated Outcome Probability
Connecticut Sun
31.5%
Atlanta Dream
68.5%
+22.2% edge at +975
No edge at -1955
Our 10,000 iterations project the Atlanta Dream to win outright in 68.5% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CON +16.6 / ATL -16.6
CON covers
(-110)
+23.4% Edge
75.8%
ATL covers
(-110)
24.2%
Total
O/U: 168.3
OVER
(-110)
46.6%
UNDER
(-110)
+1.0% Edge
53.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 76.0 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: ATL holds an Offensive Rating of 123.5 vs CON's Defensive Rating of 112.6.
- • 📊 Season Records: ATL is 26-14 (Home: 13-7) vs CON 10-30 (Away: 3-17).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.036 | CON factor: 0.964 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Atlanta Dream winning outright in 68.5% of trials. Projected score: CON 81 - ATL 87.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 76.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.2
ORtg: 111.6
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 121.3
DRtg: 108.7
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 106.2
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.1% / 40.9%
3-Point %
32.7% / 30.8%
Free Throw %
81.0% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Connecticut Sun
Atlanta Dream
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Connecticut Sun
L
@ Dallas Wings
71 - 97
|
Aug 30, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
91 - 111
|
Aug 28, 2026
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
64 - 89
|
Aug 26, 2026
W
vs Chicago Sky
87 - 81
|
Aug 25, 2026
L
@ Los Angeles Sparks
68 - 77
|
Aug 22, 2026
Atlanta Dream
W
vs Minnesota Lynx
89 - 81
|
Aug 30, 2026
L
vs Portland Fire
83 - 101
|
Aug 28, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
78 - 71
|
Aug 24, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
99 - 89
|
Aug 22, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
124 - 88
|
Aug 20, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Atlanta Dream defeated Connecticut Sun
104 - 69
|
Aug 13, 2026
Home
Atlanta Dream defeated Connecticut Sun
91 - 75
|
Jun 02, 2026