MLS
Friday, September 18 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
RBNY
Red Bull New York
Away
9-6-11
Form
D
L
D
L
W
Projected Expected Goals
1.25
—
1.71
Expected Goals
NYC
New York City FC
Home
8-8-10
Form
D
D
D
L
W
- Spread
-
RBNY -0.5 (-110)NYC +0.5 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.5 (-110)Simulated 3.0
- Moneyline
-
RBNY +255NYC +100
Simulated Outcome Probability
Red Bull New York Win
27.1%
Draw / Tie
26.0%
New York City FC Win
46.9%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Red Bull New York Win: 27.1%, Draw: 26.0%, and New York City FC Win: 46.9%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
12.3%
#2
2-1
9.1%
#3
1-0
7.9%
#4
2-0
7.7%
#5
1-2
7.4%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
59.6%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
40.4%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: RBNY -0.5 / NYC +0.5
RBNY covers
(-110)
27.1%
NYC covers
(-110)
+20.5% Edge
72.9%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(-110)
+4.2% Edge
56.6%
UNDER
(-110)
43.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: NYC projected match xG: 1.71 | RBNY projected match xG: 1.24 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: NYC Win: 46.9% | Draw: 26.0% | RBNY Win: 27.1%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 59.6% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (12.3%), 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.9%), 2-0 (7.7%), 1-2 (7.4%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: NYC record: 8-8-9 (Home: ) vs RBNY record: 8-6-11 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: NYC factor: 0.991 | RBNY factor: 0.981 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **NYC Moneyline** (46.9% simulated win probability vs 26.0% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **NYC +0.5** (72.9% cover probability). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.9 Goals** (56.6% cover probability, projected total: 2.96). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (59.6% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Red Bull New York
W
@ Columbus Crew
1 - 0
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
@ LAFC
0 - 2
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
@ Seattle Sounders FC
0 - 0
|
Sep 05, 2026
L
vs Philadelphia Union
1 - 3
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
vs Chicago Fire FC
1 - 1
|
Aug 22, 2026
New York City FC
W
@ Real Salt Lake
2 - 0
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
vs New England Revolution
1 - 2
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
vs Nashville SC
0 - 0
|
Sep 04, 2026
L
@ Toronto FC
1 - 1
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
@ New England Revolution
1 - 1
|
Aug 23, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
New York City FC defeated Red Bull New York
1 - 1
|
May 16, 2026