WNBA
Friday, September 18 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NY
New York Liberty
Away
25-16
(11-10 Away)
Form
W
L
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
87.4
—
93.1
MIN
Minnesota Lynx
Home
31-10
(14-7 Home)
Form
W
W
W
L
L
- Spread
-
NY +6.5 (-110)MIN -6.5 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 177.2 (-110)Simulated 180.5
- Moneyline
-
NY +200MIN -245
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Liberty
34.8%
Minnesota Lynx
65.2%
+1.5% edge at +200
No edge at -245
Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 65.2% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NY +6.5 / MIN -6.5
NY covers
(-110)
51.9%
MIN covers
(-110)
48.1%
Total
O/U: 177.2
OVER
(-110)
+5.3% Edge
57.7%
UNDER
(-110)
42.3%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.0 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: MIN holds an Offensive Rating of 125.7 vs NY's Defensive Rating of 104.8.
- • 📊 Season Records: MIN is 31-9 (Home: 14-6) vs NY 24-16 (Away: 10-10).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: MIN factor: 1.007 | NY factor: 1.007 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 65.2% of trials. Projected score: NY 87 - MIN 93.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.0
ORtg: 114.6
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 126.9
DRtg: 105.4
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 103.6
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
46.2% / 44.8%
3-Point %
34.9% / 38.0%
Free Throw %
82.2% / 78.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
New York Liberty
Minnesota Lynx
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York Liberty
W
vs Chicago Sky
85 - 66
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
60 - 79
|
Aug 27, 2026
W
vs Indiana Fever
109 - 102
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
@ Chicago Sky
86 - 93
|
Aug 18, 2026
W
@ Connecticut Sun
82 - 75
|
Aug 15, 2026
Minnesota Lynx
L
@ Atlanta Dream
81 - 89
|
Aug 30, 2026
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
66 - 80
|
Aug 24, 2026
W
@ Washington Mystics
94 - 84
|
Aug 21, 2026
W
@ Las Vegas Aces
92 - 87
|
Aug 15, 2026
W
@ Portland Fire
85 - 81
|
Aug 12, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Minnesota Lynx defeated New York Liberty
90 - 85
|
Jul 11, 2026
Home
New York Liberty defeated Minnesota Lynx
99 - 86
|
Jul 03, 2026