MLS
Saturday, September 19 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CLB
Columbus Crew
Away
7-5-14
Form
L
L
W
L
L
Projected Expected Goals
1.41
—
1.67
Expected Goals
MTL
CF Montréal
Home
5-6-15
Form
D
L
L
L
L
- Spread
-
CLB -0.3 (-110)MTL +0.3 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.1 (-110)Simulated 3.1
- Moneyline
-
CLB +225MTL +115
Simulated Outcome Probability
Columbus Crew Win
31.0%
Draw / Tie
26.5%
CF Montréal Win
42.5%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Columbus Crew Win: 31.0%, Draw: 26.5%, and CF Montréal Win: 42.5%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
12.2%
#2
2-1
8.9%
#3
1-2
7.6%
#4
2-0
6.4%
#5
1-0
6.3%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
62.4%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
37.6%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CLB -0.3 / MTL +0.3
CLB covers
(-110)
31.0%
MTL covers
(-110)
+16.6% Edge
69.0%
Total
O/U: 3.1
OVER
(-110)
36.9%
UNDER
(-110)
+10.7% Edge
63.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: MTL projected match xG: 1.67 | CLB projected match xG: 1.4 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: MTL Win: 42.5% | Draw: 26.5% | CLB Win: 31.0%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 62.4% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (12.2%), 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%), 2-0 (6.4%), 1-0 (6.3%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: MTL record: 5-6-14 (Home: ) vs CLB record: 6-5-14 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: MTL factor: 0.941 | CLB factor: 0.961 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **MTL Moneyline** (42.5% simulated win probability vs 26.5% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **MTL +0.3** (69.0% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.1 Goals** (63.1% cover probability, projected total: 3.08). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (62.4% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Columbus Crew
L
vs Red Bull New York
0 - 1
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
@ D.C. United
1 - 2
|
Sep 09, 2026
W
vs Colorado Rapids
3 - 0
|
Sep 05, 2026
L
vs New England Revolution
1 - 3
|
Aug 30, 2026
L
@ Nashville SC
2 - 3
|
Aug 22, 2026
CF Montréal
L
@ Colorado Rapids
0 - 1
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
vs Charlotte FC
1 - 2
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
@ Philadelphia Union
0 - 2
|
Sep 05, 2026
L
@ Inter Miami CF
1 - 7
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
vs LA Galaxy
2 - 2
|
Aug 22, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
CF Montréal defeated Columbus Crew
2 - 1
|
Aug 19, 2026