MLS
Saturday, September 19 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CLT
Charlotte FC
Away
12-7-7
Form
W
W
D
W
D
Projected Expected Goals
1.54
—
1.68
Expected Goals
DC
D.C. United
Home
6-11-8
Form
L
L
D
W
D
- Spread
-
CLT -0.1 (-125)DC +0.1 (+100)
- Total
-
Posted 3.0 (-105)Simulated 3.2
- Moneyline
-
CLT +135DC +180
Simulated Outcome Probability
Charlotte FC Win
34.2%
Draw / Tie
25.5%
D.C. United Win
40.3%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Charlotte FC Win: 34.2%, Draw: 25.5%, and D.C. United Win: 40.3%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.1%
#2
2-1
9.1%
#3
1-2
8.2%
#4
2-2
6.7%
#5
1-0
5.4%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
65.4%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
34.6%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CLT -0.1 / DC +0.1
CLT covers
(-125)
34.2%
DC covers
(+100)
+15.8% Edge
65.8%
Total
O/U: 3.0
OVER
(-105)
40.2%
UNDER
(-120)
36.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: DC projected match xG: 1.66 | CLT projected match xG: 1.55 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: DC Win: 40.3% | Draw: 25.5% | CLT Win: 34.2%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 65.4% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.2%), 2-2 (6.7%), 1-0 (5.4%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: DC record: 6-11-7 (Home: ) vs CLT record: 11-7-7 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: DC factor: 0.981 | CLT factor: 1.041 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **DC Moneyline** (40.3% simulated win probability vs 25.5% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **DC +0.1** (65.8% cover probability). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (65.4% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Charlotte FC
L
@ FC Cincinnati
3 - 3
|
Sep 12, 2026
W
@ CF Montréal
2 - 1
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
vs Houston Dynamo FC
0 - 0
|
Sep 05, 2026
W
@ Atlanta United FC
2 - 0
|
Aug 29, 2026
W
vs D.C. United
3 - 1
|
Aug 22, 2026
D.C. United
L
vs Atlanta United FC
0 - 0
|
Sep 12, 2026
W
vs Columbus Crew
2 - 1
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
vs LAFC
0 - 0
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
@ Charlotte FC
1 - 3
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
vs New England Revolution
0 - 3
|
Aug 19, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Charlotte FC defeated D.C. United
3 - 1
|
Aug 22, 2026