WNBA
Saturday, September 19 at 01:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PHO
Phoenix Mercury
Away
15-27
(9-13 Away)
Form
L
L
L
W
W
Projected Final Score
85.2
—
89.9
DAL
Dallas Wings
Home
26-16
(16-6 Home)
Form
W
W
W
W
W
- Spread
-
PHO +9.5 (-105)DAL -9.5 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 172.0 (-110)Simulated 175.1
- Moneyline
-
PHO +330DAL -430
Simulated Outcome Probability
Phoenix Mercury
37.3%
Dallas Wings
62.7%
+14.0% edge at +330
No edge at -430
Our 10,000 iterations project the Dallas Wings to win outright in 62.7% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PHO +9.5 / DAL -9.5
PHO covers
(-105)
+11.8% Edge
63.0%
DAL covers
(-110)
37.0%
Total
O/U: 172.0
OVER
(-110)
+6.0% Edge
58.4%
UNDER
(-110)
41.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 79.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: DAL holds an Offensive Rating of 112.2 vs PHO's Defensive Rating of 110.1.
- • ❌ Injury Impact: PHO ratings adjusted (OffRating: -6.5, DefRating: +1.2) with Kahleah Copper ruled OUT.
- • 📊 Season Records: DAL is 25-16 (Home: 15-6) vs PHO 15-26 (Away: 9-12).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: DAL factor: 1.05 | PHO factor: 0.978 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Dallas Wings winning outright in 62.7% of trials. Projected score: PHO 85 - DAL 90.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.1
ORtg: 116.4
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 107.7
DRtg: 107.2
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 106.6
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.0% / 44.6%
3-Point %
33.6% / 32.2%
Free Throw %
81.5% / 80.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Phoenix Mercury
Dallas Wings
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Phoenix Mercury
W
@ Portland Fire
94 - 91
|
Sep 17, 2026
W
vs Toronto Tempo
101 - 69
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
vs Washington Mystics
73 - 80
|
Aug 27, 2026
L
vs Washington Mystics
84 - 94
|
Aug 25, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
89 - 99
|
Aug 22, 2026
Dallas Wings
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
97 - 77
|
Sep 17, 2026
W
vs Connecticut Sun
97 - 71
|
Aug 30, 2026
W
vs Portland Fire
96 - 78
|
Aug 25, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
92 - 70
|
Aug 23, 2026
W
vs Indiana Fever
91 - 85
|
Aug 20, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Dallas Wings defeated Phoenix Mercury
85 - 70
|
Jun 11, 2026