MLS
Sunday, September 20 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
SD
San Diego FC
Away
8-7-11
Form
W
W
L
L
L
Projected Expected Goals
1.54
—
2.03
Expected Goals
MIA
Inter Miami CF
Home
12-10-4
Form
L
W
D
D
D
- Spread
-
SD +1.2 (+110)MIA -1.2 (-140)
- Total
-
Posted 4.2 (-110)Simulated 3.6
- Moneyline
-
SD +465MIA -230
Simulated Outcome Probability
San Diego FC Win
28.2%
Draw / Tie
23.7%
Inter Miami CF Win
48.1%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of San Diego FC Win: 28.2%, Draw: 23.7%, and Inter Miami CF Win: 48.1%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
9.9%
#2
2-1
8.6%
#3
2-2
7.2%
#4
1-2
6.4%
#5
3-1
6.2%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
69.2%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
30.8%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: SD +1.2 / MIA -1.2
SD covers
(+110)
+23.6% Edge
71.2%
MIA covers
(-140)
28.8%
Total
O/U: 4.2
OVER
(-110)
28.7%
UNDER
(-115)
+17.8% Edge
71.3%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: MIA projected match xG: 2.03 | SD projected match xG: 1.55 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: MIA Win: 48.1% | Draw: 23.7% | SD Win: 28.2%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 69.2% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.2%), 1-2 (6.4%), 3-1 (6.2%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: MIA record: 12-9-4 (Home: ) vs SD record: 8-6-11 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: MIA factor: 0.991 | SD factor: 0.991 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **MIA Moneyline** (48.1% simulated win probability vs 23.7% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **SD +1.2** (71.2% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 4.2 Goals** (71.3% cover probability, projected total: 3.57). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (69.2% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
San Diego FC
L
vs Philadelphia Union
0 - 5
|
Sep 13, 2026
L
vs San Jose Earthquakes
2 - 3
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
@ Orlando City SC
0 - 1
|
Sep 05, 2026
W
vs LA Galaxy
3 - 1
|
Aug 29, 2026
W
vs Colorado Rapids
3 - 0
|
Aug 22, 2026
Inter Miami CF
L
vs Nashville SC
2 - 2
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
@ Chicago Fire FC
1 - 1
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
vs Atlanta United FC
2 - 2
|
Sep 05, 2026
W
vs CF Montréal
7 - 1
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
vs Toronto FC
1 - 2
|
Aug 22, 2026