WNBA
Sunday, September 20 at 01:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIN
Minnesota Lynx
Away
32-10
(18-3 Away)
Form
W
W
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
92.0
—
81.2
CON
Connecticut Sun
Home
10-32
(7-14 Home)
Form
W
L
L
L
L
- Spread
-
MIN -17.5 (-110)CON +17.5 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 166.4 (-110)Simulated 173.2
- Moneyline
-
MIN -2205CON +1040
Simulated Outcome Probability
Minnesota Lynx
78.0%
Connecticut Sun
22.0%
No edge at -2205
+13.2% edge at +1040
Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 78.0% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIN -17.5 / CON +17.5
MIN covers
(-110)
31.5%
CON covers
(-110)
+16.1% Edge
68.5%
Total
O/U: 166.4
OVER
(-110)
+14.9% Edge
67.3%
UNDER
(-110)
32.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 76.1 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: CON holds an Offensive Rating of 104.8 vs MIN's Defensive Rating of 104.2.
- • 📊 Season Records: CON is 10-31 (Home: 7-13) vs MIN 31-10 (Away: 17-3).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CON factor: 0.979 | MIN factor: 0.993 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 78.0% of trials. Projected score: MIN 92 - CON 81.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.0
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 76.5
ORtg: 123.1
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 108.5
DRtg: 103.4
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 109.6
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.8% / 44.1%
3-Point %
38.0% / 32.7%
Free Throw %
78.5% / 81.0%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Minnesota Lynx
Connecticut Sun
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Minnesota Lynx
L
vs New York Liberty
81 - 93
|
Sep 18, 2026
L
@ Atlanta Dream
81 - 89
|
Aug 30, 2026
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
66 - 80
|
Aug 24, 2026
W
@ Washington Mystics
94 - 84
|
Aug 21, 2026
W
@ Las Vegas Aces
92 - 87
|
Aug 15, 2026
Connecticut Sun
L
@ Atlanta Dream
59 - 103
|
Sep 17, 2026
L
@ Dallas Wings
71 - 97
|
Aug 30, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
91 - 111
|
Aug 28, 2026
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
64 - 89
|
Aug 26, 2026
W
vs Chicago Sky
87 - 81
|
Aug 25, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Minnesota Lynx defeated Connecticut Sun
86 - 80
|
Jul 08, 2026
Away
Connecticut Sun defeated Minnesota Lynx
90 - 89
|
Jul 06, 2026