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WNBA Monday, September 21 at 08:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
ATL

Atlanta Dream

Away 29-14 (14-7 Away)
W L W W W
Projected Final Score
83.6 — 89.9
NY

New York Liberty

Home 26-17 (14-7 Home)
W L W W W
Spread
ATL -1.6 (-115)
NY +1.6 (-105)
Total
Posted 177.8 (-110)
Simulated 173.5
Moneyline
ATL -130
NY +110

Simulated Outcome Probability

Atlanta Dream
32.1%
New York Liberty
68.0%
No edge at -130
+20.4% edge at +110

Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Liberty to win outright in 68.0% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: ATL -1.6 / NY +1.6
ATL covers (-115) 29.3%
NY covers (-105) +19.5% Edge 70.7%
Total O/U: 177.8
OVER (-110) 38.4%
UNDER (-110) +9.2% Edge 61.6%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.0 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: NY holds an Offensive Rating of 117.2 vs ATL's Defensive Rating of 104.2.
  • • 📊 Season Records: NY is 26-16 (Home: 14-6) vs ATL 28-14 (Away: 13-7).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: NY factor: 1.036 | ATL factor: 1.006 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Liberty winning outright in 68.0% of trials. Projected score: ATL 84 - NY 90.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

📊 Statistical Comparison

Pace: 78.2 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 78.8
ORtg: 124.8 Offensive Rating ORtg: 115.2
DRtg: 104.8 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 103.3

🎯 Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
40.9% / 46.2%
3-Point %
30.8% / 34.9%
Free Throw %
77.8% / 82.2%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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Atlanta Dream

New York Liberty

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Atlanta Dream

W vs Chicago Sky
106 - 81 | Sep 19, 2026
W vs Connecticut Sun
103 - 59 | Sep 17, 2026
W vs Minnesota Lynx
89 - 81 | Aug 30, 2026
L vs Portland Fire
83 - 101 | Aug 28, 2026
W @ Los Angeles Sparks
78 - 71 | Aug 24, 2026

New York Liberty

W @ Toronto Tempo
106 - 69 | Sep 20, 2026
W @ Minnesota Lynx
93 - 81 | Sep 18, 2026
W vs Chicago Sky
85 - 66 | Aug 29, 2026
L vs Golden State Valkyries
60 - 79 | Aug 27, 2026
W vs Indiana Fever
109 - 102 | Aug 22, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Away New York Liberty defeated Atlanta Dream
104 - 90 | Jun 11, 2026

Injury Reports

Atlanta Dream 2 reported

F Brionna Jones
Out
G Matilde Villa
Out

New York Liberty 2 reported

G Elizabeth Balogun
Out
F Satou Sabally
Out