WNBA
Monday, September 21 at 10:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
DAL
Dallas Wings
Away
26-17
(10-11 Away)
Form
W
W
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
89.8
—
86.2
PHO
Phoenix Mercury
Home
16-27
(7-14 Home)
Form
L
L
W
W
L
- Spread
-
DAL -5.5 (-115)PHO +5.5 (-105)
- Total
-
Posted 173.7 (-110)Simulated 176.0
- Moneyline
-
DAL -225PHO +185
Simulated Outcome Probability
Dallas Wings
59.9%
Phoenix Mercury
40.1%
No edge at -225
+5.0% edge at +185
Our 10,000 iterations project the Dallas Wings to win outright in 59.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: DAL -5.5 / PHO +5.5
DAL covers
(-115)
45.4%
PHO covers
(-105)
+3.4% Edge
54.6%
Total
O/U: 173.7
OVER
(-110)
+3.5% Edge
55.9%
UNDER
(-110)
44.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 80.0 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: PHO holds an Offensive Rating of 107.3 vs DAL's Defensive Rating of 101.1.
- • ❌ Injury Impact: PHO ratings adjusted (OffRating: -6.5, DefRating: +1.2) with Kahleah Copper ruled OUT.
- • 📊 Season Records: PHO is 15-27 (Home: 6-14) vs DAL 26-16 (Away: 10-10).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: PHO factor: 0.978 | DAL factor: 1.05 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Dallas Wings winning outright in 59.9% of trials. Projected score: DAL 90 - PHO 86.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.1
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.5
ORtg: 106.5
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 116.7
DRtg: 106.6
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 108.4
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.6% / 44.0%
3-Point %
32.2% / 33.6%
Free Throw %
80.5% / 81.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Dallas Wings
Phoenix Mercury
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Dallas Wings
W
vs Phoenix Mercury
87 - 82
|
Sep 19, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
97 - 77
|
Sep 17, 2026
W
vs Connecticut Sun
97 - 71
|
Aug 30, 2026
W
vs Portland Fire
96 - 78
|
Aug 25, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
92 - 70
|
Aug 23, 2026
Phoenix Mercury
L
@ Dallas Wings
82 - 87
|
Sep 19, 2026
W
@ Portland Fire
94 - 91
|
Sep 17, 2026
W
vs Toronto Tempo
101 - 69
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
vs Washington Mystics
73 - 80
|
Aug 27, 2026
L
vs Washington Mystics
84 - 94
|
Aug 25, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Dallas Wings defeated Phoenix Mercury
87 - 82
|
Sep 19, 2026
Home
Dallas Wings defeated Phoenix Mercury
85 - 70
|
Jun 11, 2026