WNBA
Tuesday, September 22 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CON
Connecticut Sun
Away
10-33
(3-19 Away)
Form
L
L
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
79.5
—
88.9
WSH
Washington Mystics
Home
27-16
(14-7 Home)
Form
W
W
L
W
W
- Spread
-
CON +17.2 (-110)WSH -17.2 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 159.5 (-110)Simulated 168.4
- Moneyline
-
CON +930WSH -1800
Simulated Outcome Probability
Connecticut Sun
24.9%
Washington Mystics
75.1%
+15.2% edge at +930
No edge at -1800
Our 10,000 iterations project the Washington Mystics to win outright in 75.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CON +17.2 / WSH -17.2
CON covers
(-110)
+19.3% Edge
71.7%
WSH covers
(-110)
28.3%
Total
O/U: 159.5
OVER
(-110)
+21.2% Edge
73.6%
UNDER
(-110)
26.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 75.9 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: WSH holds an Offensive Rating of 115.4 vs CON's Defensive Rating of 113.5.
- • 📊 Season Records: WSH is 26-16 (Home: 13-7) vs CON 10-32 (Away: 3-18).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: WSH factor: 1.026 | CON factor: 0.96 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Washington Mystics winning outright in 75.1% of trials. Projected score: CON 80 - WSH 89.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 76.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.6
ORtg: 111.4
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 115.0
DRtg: 109.2
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 103.3
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.1% / 43.3%
3-Point %
32.7% / 36.8%
Free Throw %
81.0% / 76.2%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Connecticut Sun
Washington Mystics
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Connecticut Sun
L
vs Minnesota Lynx
89 - 101
|
Sep 20, 2026
L
@ Atlanta Dream
59 - 103
|
Sep 17, 2026
L
@ Dallas Wings
71 - 97
|
Aug 30, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
91 - 111
|
Aug 28, 2026
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
64 - 89
|
Aug 26, 2026
Washington Mystics
W
@ Indiana Fever
93 - 77
|
Sep 20, 2026
W
@ Chicago Sky
110 - 80
|
Sep 17, 2026
L
@ Los Angeles Sparks
82 - 88
|
Aug 28, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
80 - 73
|
Aug 27, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
94 - 84
|
Aug 25, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Washington Mystics defeated Connecticut Sun
92 - 84
|
Jul 28, 2026
Home
Connecticut Sun defeated Washington Mystics
68 - 57
|
Jun 26, 2026
Away
Washington Mystics defeated Connecticut Sun
88 - 81
|
Jun 17, 2026
Injury Reports
Connecticut Sun 5 reported
Washington Mystics 0 reported
No major injuries reported.