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WNBA Tuesday, September 22 at 08:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIN

Minnesota Lynx

Away 32-11 (18-4 Away)
W L L L W
Projected Final Score
95.0 — 90.8
IND

Indiana Fever

Home 28-15 (15-7 Home)
L W W W L
Spread
MIN -1.1 (-110)
IND +1.1 (-115)
Total
Posted 185.0 (-110)
Simulated 185.8
Moneyline
MIN -115
IND -105

Simulated Outcome Probability

Minnesota Lynx
61.8%
Indiana Fever
38.2%
+8.3% edge at -115
No edge at -105

Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 61.8% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: MIN -1.1 / IND +1.1
MIN covers (-110) +6.5% Edge 58.9%
IND covers (-115) 41.2%
Total O/U: 185.0
OVER (-110) 51.3%
UNDER (-110) 48.7%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.3 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: IND holds an Offensive Rating of 125.6 vs MIN's Defensive Rating of 102.4.
  • • 📊 Season Records: IND is 27-15 (Home: 14-7) vs MIN 32-10 (Away: 18-3).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: IND factor: 0.992 | MIN factor: 1.008 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 61.8% of trials. Projected score: MIN 95 - IND 91.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

📊 Statistical Comparison

Pace: 78.0 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 80.0
ORtg: 126.5 Offensive Rating ORtg: 126.5
DRtg: 103.4 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 112.8

🎯 Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
44.8% / 45.3%
3-Point %
38.0% / 35.6%
Free Throw %
78.5% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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Minnesota Lynx

Indiana Fever

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Minnesota Lynx

W @ Connecticut Sun
101 - 89 | Sep 20, 2026
L vs New York Liberty
81 - 93 | Sep 18, 2026
L @ Atlanta Dream
81 - 89 | Aug 30, 2026
L vs Golden State Valkyries
66 - 80 | Aug 24, 2026
W @ Washington Mystics
94 - 84 | Aug 21, 2026

Indiana Fever

L vs Washington Mystics
77 - 93 | Sep 20, 2026
W @ Toronto Tempo
103 - 85 | Sep 18, 2026
W vs Connecticut Sun
111 - 91 | Aug 28, 2026
W @ Chicago Sky
113 - 90 | Aug 23, 2026
L @ New York Liberty
102 - 109 | Aug 22, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Home Minnesota Lynx defeated Indiana Fever
108 - 100 | Aug 02, 2026

Injury Reports

Minnesota Lynx 2 reported

G Elena Buenavida
Out
F Anastasiia Olairi Kosu
Out

Indiana Fever 2 reported

C Aliyah Boston
Out
G Tyasha Harris
Out