Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
- Spread
-
TB +1.5 (-210)NYY -1.5 (+175)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-105)Simulated 7.1
- Moneyline
-
TB +110NYY -130
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Yankees to win outright in 57.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: NYY starting lineup holds a slight overall statistical advantage.
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Hosted at NYY's stadium, which features high run and home-run factors favoring overall offensive projections.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: TB enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 85%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Yankees winning outright in 57.1% of run trials, with a projected score of TB 3.4 - NYY 3.7. The strongest model variance is on the spread: take TB +1.5 (covers in 62.2% of simulations).
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **57.6%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Nick Martinez (K%: 14.8%, BB%: 4.0%) faces NYY's top of the order (avg OBP: 33.8%). Home starter Carlos Rodón (K%: 26.3%, BB%: 12.7%) matchups against TB's first three hitters (avg OBP: 36.0%). **Best Bet**: **NRFI (Yes)**. With both starters showing strong control/strikeout rates, our simulator identifies a solid value edge (+11.1%) at +115.