Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
- Spread
-
TB +1.5 (-215)NYY -1.5 (+180)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-110)Simulated 6.5
- Moneyline
-
TB +110NYY -125
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Yankees to win outright in 57.6% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: NYY starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in Slugging (+0.030).
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Hosted at NYY's stadium, which features high run and home-run factors favoring overall offensive projections.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Yankees winning outright in 57.6% of run trials, with a projected score of TB 3.1 - NYY 3.4. The strongest model variance is on the spread: take TB +1.5 (covers in 63.1% of simulations).
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **61.2%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Drew Rasmussen (K%: 25.3%, BB%: 5.6%) faces NYY's top of the order (avg OBP: 33.6%). Home starter Max Fried (K%: 24.6%, BB%: 8.1%) matchups against TB's first three hitters (avg OBP: 35.1%). **Best Bet**: **NRFI (Yes)**. With both starters showing strong control/strikeout rates, our simulator identifies a solid value edge (+14.7%) at +115.