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MLS Wednesday, September 23 at 09:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
RSL

Real Salt Lake

Away 8-5-13
L D L L L
Projected Expected Goals
1.32 — 1.68
Expected Goals
SEA

Seattle Sounders FC

Home 8-8-9
D D D D D
Spread
RSL +0.7 (-105)
SEA -0.7 (-120)
Total
Posted 3.1 (-115)
Simulated 3.0
Moneyline
RSL +320
SEA -135

Simulated Outcome Probability

Real Salt Lake Win
28.9%
Draw / Tie
26.2%
Seattle Sounders FC Win
44.9%

Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Real Salt Lake Win: 28.9%, Draw: 26.2%, and Seattle Sounders FC Win: 44.9%.

Top Projected Exact Scorelines Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
12.5%
#2
2-1
9.9%
#3
1-0
7.1%
#4
1-2
7.1%
#5
2-0
6.9%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Projected Probability
BTTS — YES Both teams score 1+ goals
61.7%
BTTS — NO At least one team shut out
38.3%

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: RSL +0.7 / SEA -0.7
RSL covers (-105) +3.9% Edge 55.1%
SEA covers (-120) 44.9%
Total O/U: 3.1
OVER (-115) 35.1%
UNDER (-110) +12.5% Edge 64.9%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: SEA projected match xG: 1.7 | RSL projected match xG: 1.34 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
  • • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: SEA Win: 44.9% | Draw: 26.2% | RSL Win: 28.9%.
  • • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 61.7% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (12.5%), 2-1 (9.9%), 1-0 (7.1%), 1-2 (7.1%), 2-0 (6.9%).
  • • 📊 Standings & Records: SEA record: 7-8-9 (Home: ) vs RSL record: 8-5-12 (Away: ).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: SEA factor: 0.981 | RSL factor: 0.941 (based on recent form).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **SEA Moneyline** (44.9% simulated win probability vs 26.2% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **RSL +0.7** (55.1% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.1 Goals** (64.9% cover probability, projected total: 3.0). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (61.7% expected probability).

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Real Salt Lake

L vs Vancouver Whitecaps
0 - 3 | Sep 19, 2026
L vs New York City FC
0 - 2 | Sep 12, 2026
L @ Houston Dynamo FC
1 - 2 | Sep 09, 2026
L vs LAFC
2 - 2 | Sep 05, 2026
L @ Colorado Rapids
0 - 1 | Aug 29, 2026

Seattle Sounders FC

L @ Colorado Rapids
3 - 3 | Sep 19, 2026
L @ LA Galaxy
1 - 1 | Sep 12, 2026
L vs Red Bull New York
0 - 0 | Sep 05, 2026
L vs Chicago Fire FC
2 - 2 | Aug 29, 2026
L @ FC Cincinnati
1 - 1 | Aug 22, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Home Real Salt Lake defeated Seattle Sounders FC
2 - 1 | Feb 28, 2026