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WNBA Wednesday, September 23 at 08:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
ATL

Atlanta Dream

Away 30-14 (15-7 Away)
L W W W W
Projected Final Score
85.1 — 87.4
NY

New York Liberty

Home 26-18 (14-8 Home)
L W W W L
Spread
ATL -3.0 (-110)
NY +3.0 (-110)
Total
Posted 175.0 (-110)
Simulated 172.5
Moneyline
ATL -150
NY +125

Simulated Outcome Probability

Atlanta Dream
43.5%
New York Liberty
56.5%
No edge at -150
+12.1% edge at +125

Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Liberty to win outright in 56.5% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: ATL -3.0 / NY +3.0
ATL covers (-110) 35.6%
NY covers (-110) +12.0% Edge 64.4%
Total O/U: 175.0
OVER (-110) 42.0%
UNDER (-110) +5.6% Edge 58.0%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 76.9 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: NY holds an Offensive Rating of 112.5 vs ATL's Defensive Rating of 102.4.
  • • 📊 Season Records: NY is 26-17 (Home: 14-7) vs ATL 29-14 (Away: 14-7).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: NY factor: 1.007 | ATL factor: 1.021 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Liberty winning outright in 56.5% of trials. Projected score: ATL 85 - NY 87.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

📊 Statistical Comparison

Pace: 78.2 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 78.8
ORtg: 124.8 Offensive Rating ORtg: 113.8
DRtg: 104.5 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 102.9

🎯 Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
40.9% / 46.2%
3-Point %
30.8% / 34.9%
Free Throw %
77.8% / 82.2%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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Atlanta Dream

New York Liberty

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Atlanta Dream

W @ New York Liberty
95 - 84 | Sep 21, 2026
W vs Chicago Sky
106 - 81 | Sep 19, 2026
W vs Connecticut Sun
103 - 59 | Sep 17, 2026
W vs Minnesota Lynx
89 - 81 | Aug 30, 2026
L vs Portland Fire
83 - 101 | Aug 28, 2026

New York Liberty

L vs Atlanta Dream
84 - 95 | Sep 21, 2026
W @ Toronto Tempo
106 - 69 | Sep 20, 2026
W @ Minnesota Lynx
93 - 81 | Sep 18, 2026
W vs Chicago Sky
85 - 66 | Aug 29, 2026
L vs Golden State Valkyries
60 - 79 | Aug 27, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Away Atlanta Dream defeated New York Liberty
95 - 84 | Sep 21, 2026
Away New York Liberty defeated Atlanta Dream
104 - 90 | Jun 11, 2026

Injury Reports

Atlanta Dream 2 reported

F Brionna Jones
Out
G Matilde Villa
Out

New York Liberty 2 reported

G Elizabeth Balogun
Out
F Satou Sabally
Out