St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Spread
-
STL +1.5 (-170)PIT -1.5 (+145)
- Total
-
Posted 7.0 (-110)Simulated 8.0
- Moneyline
-
STL +135PIT -160
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the Pittsburgh Pirates to win outright in 64.2% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • đïž Ballpark Factor: Played at PIT's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the Pittsburgh Pirates winning outright in 64.2% of run trials, with a projected score of STL 3.4 - PIT 4.6. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with STL +1.5 covering in 53.7% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the OVER 7.0 which hit in 55.7% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **49.9%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Kyle Leahy (K%: 22.0%, BB%: 7.8%) faces PIT's top of the order (avg OBP: 33.9%). Home starter Paul Skenes (K%: 27.9%, BB%: 8.4%) matchups against STL's first three hitters (avg OBP: 34.8%). No significant betting edge identified for the first inning market.