MLS
Saturday, September 26 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NYC
New York City FC
Away
8-9-10
Form
D
D
L
W
L
Projected Expected Goals
1.38
—
1.58
Expected Goals
ATL
Atlanta United FC
Home
7-6-14
Form
L
D
L
D
W
- Spread
-
NYC 0.0 (-100)ATL 0.0 (-120)
- Total
-
Posted 2.8 (-120)Simulated 3.0
- Moneyline
-
NYC +165ATL +145
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York City FC Win
32.2%
Draw / Tie
27.0%
Atlanta United FC Win
40.8%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of New York City FC Win: 32.2%, Draw: 27.0%, and Atlanta United FC Win: 40.8%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
12.6%
#2
2-1
8.6%
#3
1-2
8.1%
#4
1-0
6.9%
#5
2-0
6.5%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
61.1%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
38.9%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NYC 0.0 / ATL 0.0
NYC covers
(-100)
45.7%
ATL covers
(-120)
54.3%
Total
O/U: 2.8
OVER
(-120)
+2.6% Edge
57.1%
UNDER
(-105)
42.9%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: ATL projected match xG: 1.58 | NYC projected match xG: 1.38 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: ATL Win: 40.8% | Draw: 27.0% | NYC Win: 32.2%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 61.1% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%), 1-0 (6.9%), 2-0 (6.5%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: ATL record: 7-5-14 (Home: ) vs NYC record: 8-8-10 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 0.981 | NYC factor: 0.981 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **ATL Moneyline** (40.8% simulated win probability vs 27.0% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **ATL -0.0** (54.3% cover probability). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.8 Goals** (57.1% cover probability, projected total: 2.96). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (61.1% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York City FC
L
vs Red Bull New York
0 - 1
|
Sep 18, 2026
W
@ Real Salt Lake
2 - 0
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
vs New England Revolution
1 - 2
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
vs Nashville SC
0 - 0
|
Sep 04, 2026
L
@ Toronto FC
1 - 1
|
Aug 29, 2026
Atlanta United FC
W
@ Portland Timbers
1 - 0
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
@ D.C. United
0 - 0
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
vs Orlando City SC
2 - 3
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
@ Inter Miami CF
2 - 2
|
Sep 05, 2026
L
vs Charlotte FC
0 - 2
|
Aug 29, 2026