MLS
Saturday, September 26 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CIN
FC Cincinnati
Away
8-9-9
Form
D
L
L
D
D
Projected Expected Goals
1.62
—
1.75
Expected Goals
MTL
CF Montréal
Home
6-6-15
Form
L
L
L
L
L
- Spread
-
CIN -0.1 (-110)MTL +0.1 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.4 (-110)Simulated 3.4
- Moneyline
-
CIN +190MTL +125
Simulated Outcome Probability
FC Cincinnati Win
34.8%
Draw / Tie
25.1%
CF Montréal Win
40.1%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of FC Cincinnati Win: 34.8%, Draw: 25.1%, and CF Montréal Win: 40.1%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.8%
#2
2-1
8.6%
#3
1-2
8.0%
#4
2-2
7.2%
#5
2-0
5.2%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
67.6%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
32.4%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CIN -0.1 / MTL +0.1
CIN covers
(-110)
34.8%
MTL covers
(-110)
+12.8% Edge
65.2%
Total
O/U: 3.4
OVER
(-110)
43.4%
UNDER
(-110)
+4.2% Edge
56.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: MTL projected match xG: 1.74 | CIN projected match xG: 1.61 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: MTL Win: 40.1% | Draw: 25.1% | CIN Win: 34.8%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 67.6% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.2%), 2-0 (5.2%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: MTL record: 5-6-15 (Home: ) vs CIN record: 8-9-8 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: MTL factor: 0.931 | CIN factor: 0.961 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **MTL Moneyline** (40.1% simulated win probability vs 25.1% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **MTL +0.1** (65.2% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.3 Goals** (56.6% cover probability, projected total: 3.37). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (67.6% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
FC Cincinnati
L
@ Houston Dynamo FC
2 - 2
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
vs Charlotte FC
3 - 3
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
@ Philadelphia Union
0 - 5
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
@ Nashville SC
0 - 4
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
vs Seattle Sounders FC
1 - 1
|
Aug 22, 2026
CF Montréal
L
vs Columbus Crew
0 - 2
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
@ Colorado Rapids
0 - 1
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
vs Charlotte FC
1 - 2
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
@ Philadelphia Union
0 - 2
|
Sep 05, 2026
L
@ Inter Miami CF
1 - 7
|
Aug 29, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
FC Cincinnati defeated CF Montréal
4 - 3
|
Mar 22, 2026