MLS
Sunday, September 27 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIA
Inter Miami CF
Away
12-10-5
Form
W
D
D
D
D
Projected Expected Goals
1.71
—
1.81
Expected Goals
CLB
Columbus Crew
Home
8-5-14
Form
L
W
L
L
W
- Spread
-
MIA -0.1 (-110)CLB +0.1 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.5 (-110)Simulated 3.5
- Moneyline
-
MIA +165CLB +135
Simulated Outcome Probability
Inter Miami CF Win
35.8%
Draw / Tie
24.2%
Columbus Crew Win
40.0%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Inter Miami CF Win: 35.8%, Draw: 24.2%, and Columbus Crew Win: 40.0%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.5%
#2
2-1
8.0%
#3
1-2
7.7%
#4
2-2
7.0%
#5
2-0
4.9%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
69.4%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
30.6%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIA -0.1 / CLB +0.1
MIA covers
(-110)
35.8%
CLB covers
(-110)
+11.8% Edge
64.2%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(-110)
47.2%
UNDER
(-110)
+0.4% Edge
52.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CLB projected match xG: 1.81 | MIA projected match xG: 1.7 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CLB Win: 40.0% | Draw: 24.2% | MIA Win: 35.8%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 69.4% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (8.0%), 1-2 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.0%), 2-0 (4.9%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: CLB record: 7-5-14 (Home: ) vs MIA record: 12-10-4 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CLB factor: 0.991 | MIA factor: 1.001 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CLB Moneyline** (40.0% simulated win probability vs 24.2% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CLB +0.2** (64.2% cover probability). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (69.4% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Inter Miami CF
L
vs San Diego FC
2 - 2
|
Sep 20, 2026
L
vs Nashville SC
2 - 2
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
@ Chicago Fire FC
1 - 1
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
vs Atlanta United FC
2 - 2
|
Sep 05, 2026
W
vs CF Montréal
7 - 1
|
Aug 29, 2026
Columbus Crew
W
@ CF Montréal
2 - 0
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
vs Red Bull New York
0 - 1
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
@ D.C. United
1 - 2
|
Sep 09, 2026
W
vs Colorado Rapids
3 - 0
|
Sep 05, 2026
L
vs New England Revolution
1 - 3
|
Aug 30, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Columbus Crew defeated Inter Miami CF
2 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026