WNBA
Sunday, September 27 at 02:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NY
New York Liberty
Away
26-18
(12-10 Away)
Form
W
W
W
L
L
Projected Final Score
87.3
—
90.4
MIN
Minnesota Lynx
Home
33-11
(15-7 Home)
Form
L
L
W
L
W
- Spread
-
NY +7.3 (-110)MIN -7.3 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 172.7 (-110)Simulated 177.7
- Moneyline
-
NY +230MIN -285
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Liberty
41.2%
Minnesota Lynx
58.8%
+10.9% edge at +230
No edge at -285
Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 58.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NY +7.3 / MIN -7.3
NY covers
(-110)
+9.4% Edge
61.8%
MIN covers
(-110)
38.2%
Total
O/U: 172.7
OVER
(-110)
+11.1% Edge
63.5%
UNDER
(-110)
36.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.0 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: MIN holds an Offensive Rating of 121.4 vs NY's Defensive Rating of 101.0.
- • 📊 Season Records: MIN is 33-11 (Home: 15-7) vs NY 26-18 (Away: 12-10).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: MIN factor: 0.988 | NY factor: 1.012 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 58.8% of trials. Projected score: NY 87 - MIN 90.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.0
ORtg: 112.2
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 125.1
DRtg: 102.2
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 103.0
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
46.2% / 44.8%
3-Point %
34.9% / 38.0%
Free Throw %
82.2% / 78.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
New York Liberty
Minnesota Lynx
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York Liberty
L
vs Atlanta Dream
65 - 83
|
Sep 23, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
84 - 95
|
Sep 21, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
106 - 69
|
Sep 20, 2026
W
@ Minnesota Lynx
93 - 81
|
Sep 18, 2026
W
vs Chicago Sky
85 - 66
|
Aug 29, 2026
Minnesota Lynx
W
vs Indiana Fever
86 - 66
|
Sep 24, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
77 - 96
|
Sep 22, 2026
W
@ Connecticut Sun
101 - 89
|
Sep 20, 2026
L
vs New York Liberty
81 - 93
|
Sep 18, 2026
L
@ Atlanta Dream
81 - 89
|
Aug 30, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
New York Liberty defeated Minnesota Lynx
93 - 81
|
Sep 18, 2026
Home
Minnesota Lynx defeated New York Liberty
90 - 85
|
Jul 11, 2026
Home
New York Liberty defeated Minnesota Lynx
99 - 86
|
Jul 03, 2026