WNBA
Sunday, September 27 at 04:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
IND
Indiana Fever
Away
28-16
(13-9 Away)
Form
W
W
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
89.6
—
94.7
LV
Las Vegas Aces
Home
31-13
(15-7 Home)
Form
W
W
W
W
W
- Spread
-
IND +3.8 (-105)LV -3.8 (-115)
- Total
-
Posted 181.4 (-110)Simulated 184.3
- Moneyline
-
IND +150LV -175
Simulated Outcome Probability
Indiana Fever
35.7%
Las Vegas Aces
64.3%
No edge at +150
+0.7% edge at -175
Our 10,000 iterations project the Las Vegas Aces to win outright in 64.3% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: IND +3.8 / LV -3.8
IND covers
(-105)
44.4%
LV covers
(-115)
+2.1% Edge
55.6%
Total
O/U: 181.4
OVER
(-110)
+3.9% Edge
56.3%
UNDER
(-110)
43.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: LV holds an Offensive Rating of 125.9 vs IND's Defensive Rating of 109.0.
- • 📊 Season Records: LV is 31-13 (Home: 15-7) vs IND 28-16 (Away: 13-9).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: LV factor: 1.03 | IND factor: 1.012 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Las Vegas Aces winning outright in 64.3% of trials. Projected score: IND 90 - LV 95.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.0
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.2
ORtg: 122.6
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 125.9
DRtg: 111.8
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 102.0
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
45.3% / 45.4%
3-Point %
35.6% / 35.0%
Free Throw %
77.8% / 81.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Indiana Fever
Las Vegas Aces
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Indiana Fever
L
@ Minnesota Lynx
66 - 86
|
Sep 24, 2026
W
vs Minnesota Lynx
96 - 77
|
Sep 22, 2026
L
vs Washington Mystics
77 - 93
|
Sep 20, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
103 - 85
|
Sep 18, 2026
W
vs Connecticut Sun
111 - 91
|
Aug 28, 2026
Las Vegas Aces
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
100 - 82
|
Sep 24, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
89 - 79
|
Sep 22, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
98 - 77
|
Sep 20, 2026
W
@ Seattle Storm
114 - 77
|
Sep 17, 2026
W
vs Toronto Tempo
93 - 73
|
Aug 28, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Las Vegas Aces defeated Indiana Fever
86 - 84
|
Aug 06, 2026
Away
Indiana Fever defeated Las Vegas Aces
109 - 75
|
Jul 12, 2026
Away
Indiana Fever defeated Las Vegas Aces
84 - 68
|
Jul 05, 2026