WNBA
Tuesday, September 29 at 06:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
LV
Las Vegas Aces
Away
31-13
(16-6 Away)
Form
W
W
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
95.3
—
89.1
IND
Indiana Fever
Home
28-16
(15-7 Home)
Form
W
L
W
L
L
- Spread
-
LV +1.2 (-110)IND -1.2 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 183.6 (-110)Simulated 184.4
- Moneyline
-
LV -100IND -120
Simulated Outcome Probability
Las Vegas Aces
67.0%
Indiana Fever
33.0%
+17.0% edge at -100
No edge at -120
Our 10,000 iterations project the Las Vegas Aces to win outright in 67.0% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: LV +1.2 / IND -1.2
LV covers
(-110)
+17.4% Edge
69.8%
IND covers
(-110)
30.2%
Total
O/U: 183.6
OVER
(-110)
51.5%
UNDER
(-110)
48.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 78.1 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: IND holds an Offensive Rating of 121.2 vs LV's Defensive Rating of 98.2.
- • 📊 Season Records: IND is 28-16 (Home: 15-7) vs LV 31-13 (Away: 16-6).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: IND factor: 0.993 | LV factor: 1.035 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Las Vegas Aces winning outright in 67.0% of trials. Projected score: LV 95 - IND 89.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.2
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.0
ORtg: 125.7
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 122.2
DRtg: 101.8
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 111.4
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
45.4% / 45.3%
3-Point %
35.0% / 35.6%
Free Throw %
81.5% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Las Vegas Aces
Indiana Fever
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Las Vegas Aces
W
vs Indiana Fever
102 - 85
|
Sep 27, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
100 - 82
|
Sep 24, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
89 - 79
|
Sep 22, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
98 - 77
|
Sep 20, 2026
W
@ Seattle Storm
114 - 77
|
Sep 17, 2026
Indiana Fever
L
@ Las Vegas Aces
85 - 102
|
Sep 27, 2026
L
@ Minnesota Lynx
66 - 86
|
Sep 24, 2026
W
vs Minnesota Lynx
96 - 77
|
Sep 22, 2026
L
vs Washington Mystics
77 - 93
|
Sep 20, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
103 - 85
|
Sep 18, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Las Vegas Aces defeated Indiana Fever
102 - 85
|
Sep 27, 2026
Away
Las Vegas Aces defeated Indiana Fever
86 - 84
|
Aug 06, 2026
Away
Indiana Fever defeated Las Vegas Aces
109 - 75
|
Jul 12, 2026
Away
Indiana Fever defeated Las Vegas Aces
84 - 68
|
Jul 05, 2026