WNBA
Tuesday, September 29 at 08:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIN
Minnesota Lynx
Away
33-11
(18-4 Away)
Form
L
W
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
89.1
—
88.0
NY
New York Liberty
Home
26-18
(14-8 Home)
Form
W
W
L
L
W
- Spread
-
MIN -3.6 (-110)NY +3.6 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 173.9 (-110)Simulated 177.1
- Moneyline
-
MIN -160NY +135
Simulated Outcome Probability
Minnesota Lynx
53.3%
New York Liberty
46.7%
No edge at -160
+4.1% edge at +135
Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 53.3% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIN -3.6 / NY +3.6
MIN covers
(-110)
43.7%
NY covers
(-110)
+3.9% Edge
56.3%
Total
O/U: 173.9
OVER
(-110)
+6.9% Edge
59.3%
UNDER
(-110)
40.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.2 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: NY holds an Offensive Rating of 112.1 vs MIN's Defensive Rating of 104.1.
- • 📊 Season Records: NY is 26-18 (Home: 14-8) vs MIN 33-11 (Away: 18-4).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: NY factor: 1.015 | MIN factor: 0.986 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 53.3% of trials. Projected score: MIN 89 - NY 88.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.0
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.8
ORtg: 124.3
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 112.3
DRtg: 102.6
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 101.3
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.8% / 46.2%
3-Point %
38.0% / 34.9%
Free Throw %
78.5% / 82.2%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Minnesota Lynx
New York Liberty
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Minnesota Lynx
L
vs New York Liberty
75 - 91
|
Sep 27, 2026
W
vs Indiana Fever
86 - 66
|
Sep 24, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
77 - 96
|
Sep 22, 2026
W
@ Connecticut Sun
101 - 89
|
Sep 20, 2026
L
vs New York Liberty
81 - 93
|
Sep 18, 2026
New York Liberty
W
@ Minnesota Lynx
91 - 75
|
Sep 27, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
65 - 83
|
Sep 23, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
84 - 95
|
Sep 21, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
106 - 69
|
Sep 20, 2026
W
@ Minnesota Lynx
93 - 81
|
Sep 18, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
New York Liberty defeated Minnesota Lynx
91 - 75
|
Sep 27, 2026
Away
New York Liberty defeated Minnesota Lynx
93 - 81
|
Sep 18, 2026
Home
Minnesota Lynx defeated New York Liberty
90 - 85
|
Jul 11, 2026
Home
New York Liberty defeated Minnesota Lynx
99 - 86
|
Jul 03, 2026