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MLS Wednesday, September 30 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
STL

St. Louis CITY SC

Away 13-8-6
D W D W W
Projected Expected Goals
1.62 — 1.63
Expected Goals
RBNY

Red Bull New York

Home 9-6-12
L D L W W
Spread
STL +0.5 (-110)
RBNY -0.5 (-110)
Total
Posted 3.3 (-110)
Simulated 3.3
Moneyline
STL +150
RBNY +160

Simulated Outcome Probability

St. Louis CITY SC Win
37.1%
Draw / Tie
25.5%
Red Bull New York Win
37.5%

Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of St. Louis CITY SC Win: 37.1%, Draw: 25.5%, and Red Bull New York Win: 37.5%.

Top Projected Exact Scorelines Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.1%
#2
1-2
8.4%
#3
2-1
8.1%
#4
2-2
7.1%
#5
1-0
5.7%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Projected Probability
BTTS — YES Both teams score 1+ goals
65.4%
BTTS — NO At least one team shut out
34.6%

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: STL +0.5 / RBNY -0.5
STL covers (-110) +10.1% Edge 62.5%
RBNY covers (-110) 37.5%
Total O/U: 3.3
OVER (-110) 40.9%
UNDER (-110) +6.7% Edge 59.1%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: RBNY projected match xG: 1.64 | STL projected match xG: 1.62 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
  • • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: RBNY Win: 37.5% | Draw: 25.5% | STL Win: 37.1%.
  • • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 65.4% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.1%), 1-0 (5.7%).
  • • 📊 Standings & Records: RBNY record: 9-6-11 (Home: ) vs STL record: 12-8-6 (Away: ).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: RBNY factor: 1.001 | STL factor: 1.041 (based on recent form).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **RBNY Moneyline** (37.5% simulated win probability vs 25.5% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **STL +0.5** (62.5% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.3 Goals** (59.1% cover probability, projected total: 3.25). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (65.4% expected probability).

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

St. Louis CITY SC

W vs Toronto FC
3 - 1 | Sep 19, 2026
W vs Minnesota United FC
4 - 2 | Sep 12, 2026
L @ Portland Timbers
2 - 2 | Sep 09, 2026
W @ Vancouver Whitecaps
3 - 1 | Sep 05, 2026
L vs FC Dallas
3 - 3 | Aug 30, 2026

Red Bull New York

W @ New York City FC
1 - 0 | Sep 18, 2026
W @ Columbus Crew
1 - 0 | Sep 12, 2026
L @ LAFC
0 - 2 | Sep 09, 2026
L @ Seattle Sounders FC
0 - 0 | Sep 05, 2026
L vs Philadelphia Union
1 - 3 | Aug 29, 2026